Ukraine consumer inflation speeds up to 1.5% m/m growth in January
Ukraine’s consumer prices grew 1.5% m/m (14.1% yoy) in January led by food and transport, speeding up from 1.0% m/m (13.7% yoy) growth in the prior month, the State Statistics Service reported on Feb. 9. Food prices grew 2.0% m/m (1.5% m/m in December), public transport costs accelerated 3.0% m/m (1.8% in December) and utility prices rose 0.4% m/m (0.3% in December). Meanwhile, a decline in prices for clothes and footwear accelerating to 3.9% m/m (2.4% m/m of decrease in December) helped to keep CPI in a decent range.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: A massive injection of budget funds into the economy at the end of 2017 boosted consumer demand throughout the holiday season in January and further distorted the already poor balance between supply and demand. Higher global prices for oil, coupled with depreciation of the national currency, drove Ukraine’s gasoline prices higher, pushing public transportation providers to raise their prices even more. We expect consumer inflation to slow from current highs only in 2H18. We expect CPI to grow 8.9% YTD, or 11.8% yoy in 2018.