Anna Konstantynova
Head of communications
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Martial law in Ukraine: business will resume as usual

Ukraine is back on global radars after Russia’s latest act of military aggression this weekend, this time against Ukrainian navy ships in the Black Sea that prompted the government to impose martial law in selected regions. In our view, the measures were excessive and not necessary, in turn prompting a disproportionately negative market reaction to them. 

The measures introduced by the government will, at minimum, demonstrate Ukraine’s institutional and physical readiness to withstand a possible campaign of Russian military aggression, thereby diminishing the risk of it occurring at all. 

Amid the turbulence, the IMF and World Bank offered support for Ukraine by reaffirming that martial law is not an impediment for their plans to lend over USD 2 bln in financing by the end of 2018. The World Bank has already scheduled a respective board meeting for Dec. 18, while the IMF managing director expects the fund’s board meeting will be scheduled after Dec. 10. 

Among the possible economic benefits of the situation for Ukraine is a long-term solution to Russia currently preventing the free flow of goods to and from Ukrainian ports in the Azov Sea, to the benefit of steelmaker Metinvest.

Extended version of Concorde Capital’s review of the Martial law in Ukraine is available here


Here you will find: 
  • Market reaction: prices and YTM changes, Nov. 28 vs. Nov. 23
  • What happened: Russians shot at Ukrainian military ships
  • The government’s response: initiation of martial law
  • Parliament’s response: no martial law – no power usurpation
  • The compromise: limited martial law, presidential election date reaffirmed
  • What does martial law mean?
  • Our review of consequences of martial law being imposed on Ukraine’s economy