Russia is preparing for offensive war on continental scale, Ukraine claims

8 September 2017

The Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise scheduled for Sept. 14-20 is preparation for a large-scale continental war, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in his annual address to Ukraine’s parliament on Sept. 7. ”There are no signs that Moscow is ready to withdraw from Donbas or Crimea, but the evidence of its preparation for an offensive war on a continental scale is growing further,” he said, referring to the exercise called West 2017. “Under the guise of strategic command-scale training, the creation of new offensive Russian army formations to invade Ukrainian territory can’t be excluded. 7,000 platforms with soldiers and hardware approached and are approaching our borders. And there is guarantee that it will all return to Russia at the conclusion of maneuvers.”

 

The fighters of the Donbas self-declared republics may use their weapons in other territories if Ukrainian forces begin to use American-provided weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a Sept. 7 press conference in China. Putin described how the separatists gained armaments used by their enemies, particularly Ukrainian nationalist paramilitaries. “If American arms are found in the conflict zone, it’s hard to say how the self-declared republics will behave,” he said. “It’s possible they will direct the armaments available to them to other zones that are sensitive to them and create problems for them.”

 

The addition of U.S.-supplied arms to the conflict will not serve to resolve the conflict, but merely create more casualties, Putin said. “I want to stress that, so that it’s understood to everyone, ‘Nothing will change’,” he said.

 

Zenon Zawada: We don’t see Russia initiating a continental war in the next two years. We think it’s possible that Putin will expand the war in Donbas if he sees that pro-Western forces will win the 2019 elections in Ukraine. We also think it’s possible that Putin will consider an armed occupation of Ukraine to install a favorable government, but we see very low chances for that considering all the expenses that would be involved. Elections are cheaper.

 

U.S.-provided weapons to the Ukrainian army won’t improve the situation for anyone, only increasing casualties. Putin knows this well because he is prepared for such an event. We doubt the U.S. will reach that decision, which would depend on U.S. President Trump, who has already revealed him sympathies for Russia. In addition, the U.S. leadership understands that this would disrupt the equilibrium that has been maintained in the Donbas fighting since February 2015. This equilibrium satisfied all sides involved, more or less.