Ukraine consumer inflation rises 1.4% m/m in November

11 December 2018

Ukraine’s consumer prices increased 1.4% m/m in November, driven mostly by food, housing and utilities prices, the State Statistics Service reported on Dec. 10. Annual inflation accelerated to 10.0% yoy from 9.5% yoy in October.


Prices for housing and utilities surged 6.1% m/m, reflecting mostly the government-imposed hike of residential gas rates by 23.5%.


Food prices grew 1.3% m/m (vs. 1.4% m/m growth in October), driven again by vegetables (9.1% m/m), bread (3.3% m/m) and milk (4.5% m/m). At the same time, prices for fruit fell 4.5% m/m and sugar slid 1.7% m/m. In addition, egg prices slid 0.5% m/m.


Overall, CPI growth was restrained by declining prices for clothing and footwear (0.6% m/m decline in November vs. 2.6% m/m growth in October) and slowed price growth for transportation (0.5 % m/m growth in November vs 3.1% m/m growth in October).


Core inflation (the consumer basket excluding goods and services with the most volatile prices) slowed to 1.1% m/m in November from 1.3% m/m in October. Annual core inflation sped up to 8.9% yoy from 8.8% yoy in October.


Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The acceleration in consumer inflation was inevitable as November prices were affected by the government's hike in residential gas rates. Meanwhile, elevated consumer demand is supporting food price growth.


We expect 2018 consumer inflation will be close to Ukraine’s central bank latest forecast of 10.1% YTD.

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