Donbas warfare intensifies in last week

21 February 2019

Armed fighting in Ukraine’s war-torn Donbas region intensified in the last week with both sides suffering at least four casualties, according to Concorde Capital’s analysis. The Ukrainian side suffered at least 18 injuries during this time, while the Russian-backed forces had at least four. Attacks from the Russian-backed fighters reached their highest level this year in fighting on Feb. 19, including fire from mortars, anti-aircraft and artillery systems, as reported by the Joint Forces Operation press service. The ceasefire was violated 11 times that day, and one Ukrainian soldier was injured.

 

The United Nations needs to consider restricting Russia’s veto rights in the Security Council and organizing a peacekeeping mission to Donbas to stop the warfare, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told the General Assembly on Feb. 20 during his working visit to the U.S. More than 2,000 Russian soldiers have been positioned in occupied Donbas to support 35,000 local fighters with access to 496 tanks, 128 anti-aircraft missile systems and 776 artillery systems, he told the UN, according to his administration's website. Meanwhile, since its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has engaged in an “unprecedented militarization” of the peninsula that is changing the strategic balance in the Black Sea region, he said.

 

Zenon Zawada: We have long expected that the Russian leadership would be intensifying its military aggression in Donbas during the election campaign. In its view, the heightened aggression will prompt more Ukrainian voters – particularly in the southeastern regions – to cast their ballots for presidential candidates calling for peace. But while the plan had been for them to vote for the Kremlin-backed Yuriy Boyko, they have instead opted to support Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has made vague statements calling for an end to fighting but has indicated that he would maintain a pro-Western foreign policy.

 

We share the view Zelenskiy’s election would hurt Ukraine’s efforts to maintain Western pressure on Russia. The Western public won’t view the military aggression any more seriously than the Ukrainians themselves. With many Westerners already disinterested and exhausted from the conflict with Russia, the election of a comedian-actor will merely affirm – or give new legitimacy to – much of the Kremlin propaganda about the war, particularly the false claim that it’s truly a domestic conflict that Ukrainians are ready to “compromise” on (though this really means capitulating).

 

For the Kremlin, either Zelenskiy or Yulia Tymoshenko are better options than Poroshenko, who will continue to engage in tight cooperation with the leading Western structures, including the EU, NATO and the IMF. While both Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy have indicated commitments to maintain Ukraine’s Western cooperation, they present for the Kremlin at least some chance to reach a “new arrangement” for Donbas.