Ukraine GDP rises 3.3% in 2018, updated statistics show
Ukraine’s GDP rose 3.3% yoy in 2018, accelerating from 2.5% yoy in 2017, the State Statistics Service reported on Mar. 21. The nominal GDP amounted to UAH 3,559 bln (USD 130.8 bln), increasing from UAH 2,984 bln (USD 112.2 bln) in 2017. Real GDP grew 3.3% yoy (0.9% q/q) in 1Q18, 3.8% yoy (1.0% q/q) in 2Q18, 2.8% yoy (0.7% q/q) in 3Q18 and 3.5% (1.1% q/q) yoy in 4Q18.
Private consumption, which grew 8.9% yoy (vs. 9.5% yoy in 2017), was the major driver of economic growth. Investment surged 14.3% yoy (vs. 16.1% yoy in 2017). The contribution of net exports remained negative with a real export decline of 1.6% yoy (vs. 3.8% yoy growth in 2017) and a real import increase of 3.2% yoy (vs. a 12.6% yoy surge in 2017).
On the production side, growth was led by agriculture (7.8% yoy), trade (3.7% yoy), and construction (7.2% yoy), while a very poor performance by manufacturing (0.6% yoy growth) was a restraining factor. The GDP deflator amounted to 15.4% (vs. 22.1% in 2017).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The reported 2018 GDP growth of 3.3% yoy met our estimate. Meanwhile, the actual GDP growth in 4Q18 of 3.5% yoy turned out a little bit higher than the preliminary estimate of 3.4% yoy.
We expect Ukraine’s economy to slow to 2.9% yoy growth this year amid less impressive agricultural performance.