Ukraine aggregate state debt increases 0.8% in May
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt rose 0.8% m/m to USD 82.1 bln as of May 31, the Finance Ministry reported on June 25. State domestic debt jumped 4.7% m/m to USD 33.1 bln, while the state foreign debt slid 2.1% m/m to USD 39.3 bln. State-guaranteed debt inched up 0.3% m/m to USD 9.7 bln.
In UAH terms, overall state debt increased 0.6% m/m in May to UAH 2,209 bln, or 55.6% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The higher growth rate of state foreign debt in USD terms was due to 1.5% hryvnia appreciation in May. June's growth rate is certain to have jumped further given the newly attracted debt from the IMF (USD 2.1 bln) and European Union (EUR 500 mln).
At the same time, state domestic debt will have declined around USD 0.2 bln as the amount of redeemed domestic debt will have exceeded what had been sold at the domestic market during the month. With all these ins and outs, Ukraine's state debt will have increased by around USD 2.5 bln, or 3% m/m in June.
We expect Ukraine's aggregate debt (state and state-guaranteed debt) will increase to USD 91.5 bln by end-2020 (vs. USD 84.4 bln in 2019).