Ukraine external goods trade deficit enlarges to USD 0.8 bln in July
Ukraine’s external goods trade deficit enlarged to USD 810 mln in July from USD 672 mln in the prior month, the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on Sept. 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to USD 713 mln (vs. a USD 751 mln deficit in June) amid 3.6% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 2.0% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
Goods exports fell 13.0% yoy in July to USD 3.7 bln (vs. a 5.7% yoy drop in June). The decline was mostly driven by falling exports of ferrous metals (-14.4% yoy) and grains (-30.3% yoy). At the same time, chemical exports surged 48.8% yoy, while exports of food oils and fats jumped 16.0% yoy.
Goods imports fell 17.3% yoy to USD 4.5 bln in July (vs. a 14.3% yoy decline in June). In particular, imports of energy products plummeted 44.9% yoy, machinery dropped 22.7% yoy, and chemical imports slid 9.0% yoy. At the same time, imports of foods advanced 7.5% yoy.
In 7M20, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 2.1 bln (vs. USD 5.0 bln in 7M19). Goods exports slid 7.4% yoy, while goods imports dropped 14.7% yoy.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s external trade remained very weak in July. The decline in exports of two major items – grains and ferrous metals – is significant as a result of both lower production volume and weaker external demand. Imports are depressed by low prices of energy resources and the meager demand for investment goods (machinery).
We expect the decline in Ukraine’s exports to decelerate through the year end due to a better performance of grain exports. Goods imports are likely to depend on the renewal of consumer demand and the situation at Ukraine’s Forex.