Western diplomats reviewing proposal for direct talks with Donbas leaders

The future of the consultative council proposal – in which
Ukrainian diplomats would talk directly with Donbas representatives in the
Minsk peace talks – lies with the results of Ukraine’s current consultations
with its French, German and OSCE advisers, President’s Office Head Andriy
Yermak told a Mar. 31 online press briefing. The council won’t include the
leaders of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics, who have
signed documents but are not formal members of the Trilateral Contact Group,
Yermak said.

Instead, Yermak said his proposal calls for including
civic activists, church representatives and similar residents of Donbas. The
council is needed to end the monopoly enjoyed by the Russian-sponsored
leadership of occupied Donbas and include average citizens, he said. These
agreements have conditions that Ukraine has to reach agreements on certain
legislative acts with the representatives of these territories, he said. The
Ukrainian government “never conducted talks with the so-called Donetsk and
Luhansk People’s Republic, separatists, and terrorists, and never will,” he
said. 

President Zelensky has dismissed Serhiy Syvokho, the
non-staff adviser to the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council
(RNBO), the detector.media news site confirmed on Mar. 30. “The clerks at the
RNBO are no longer interested in the Donbas subject. The subject of peace is
good for walking into offices, but afterwards selling the country and hiding
your head in the sand under pressure from an active minority. The RNBO has been
transformed from a formidable and important body into a fiction,” Syvokho said
on his Facebook page the same day. Recall, Syvokho was attacked by Ukrainian nationalists on Mar. 12
for having organized a presentation on Donbas reconciliation and unity, which
they brought to an end. Besides being accused of acting in the Kremlin’s
interests, he was also criticized for using Russian narratives, characterizing
the warfare in Donbas as an “internal conflict.”

Two Ukrainian soldiers died and seven were injured in
fighting in Donbas on Mar. 30 and 31, according to reports of the press service
of the Joint Forces Operation. One of them was injured by a mine near the town
of Katerynivka in the Luhansk region. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of
France and Germany accused on Mar. 30 the Russian-backed fighters in Donbas of
using the coronavirus outbreak as a pretext to restrict the work of OSCE
special monitoring mission in Donbas on Mar. 21, as reported by the faz.net
news site. Heiko Maas and Jean-Yves Le Drian said they were “very concerned”
with the restrictions.

Zenon Zawada: At first
glance, it doesn’t seem credible to claim that average citizens are needed to
represent the occupied territories of Donbas and “reach agreement on certain
legislative acts.” This would seem to be the job of experienced diplomats and
politicians, not activists or clergy. This main issue here is whether Ukraine
will make this concession to Russia in order to move forward in the overall
capitulation. We expect Ukraine’s German and OSCE advisers will reject the need
for direct talks within the consultative council for the same reasons raised by
Ukraine’s pro-Western opposition to the proposal. That is, it will give Russia
the first, minimum legal claim to absolve itself of the responsibility for the
warfare it introduced in Donbas.

Even if Ukraine’s Western advisers reject the
proposal, the Zelensky administration has shown that it will pursue its own
policy if it sees fit. That is what happened when Zelensky decided to select a
convenient loyalist, Iryna Venedyktova, as the new prosecutor general to
replace Ruslan Riaboshapka, who was backed by the U.S. Afterwards, a U.S.
diplomat was quoted anonymously about Zelensky having crossed a red line with the
decision. We believe that Zelensky could very well move forward on the Donbas
capitulation given his public approval will continue to plummet, especially
after the approval of the farmland market, and halting the war in Donbas is the
only policy that can save his presidency. And that’s with only the
Russian-oriented public, as he has all-but-alienated Ukraine’s pro-Western
electorate.

As for Syvokho’s dismissal, this is merely the latest
example of Zelensky not only lacking consistent policies, but also lacking any
loyalty to his political appointments. He has shown that he will dismiss an
official that he personally appointed once he encounters the slightest
controversy. This happened with former PM Oleksiy Honcharuk, who allegedly
stepped on the toes of Zelensky election campaign sponsor Ihor
Kolomoisky.  Syvokho assured the public that he will remain active in a
non-official role to bring pace to Donbas, and it’s possible that the Zelensky
administration will continue to offer tacit support on that basis.