Ukraine cabinet extends quarantine to Apr. 24

Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers announced this
afternoon it has decided to extend the nationwide quarantine to Apr. 24 (from
Apr. 3 previously) and introduce a national state of emergency for that period.

Zenon Zawada: This
doesn’t come as a surprise. Most of the rough economic and financial forecasts
so far likely took this possibility into account. This biggest risk this poses
is political tensions if the government decides to pursue controversial
measures, particularly with the farmland market’s creation and current attempts
to resolve the warfare in Donbas.

We expect
this extension of the current severe measures, which have halted much of
the country’s manufacturing and service enterprises, will kill Ukraine’s economic growth in 2020. The restrictions on business will likely cause
Ukraine’s GDP to fall by more than 3% this year. At the same time, the
negative effect of these measures
on Ukraine’s currency is likely to be limited, as dried out liquidity from
business will limit currency speculation.