Russia intensifies hybrid war tactics in Ukraine

Russian-backed forces launched an intense offensive on
Mar. 10 against Ukrainian positions in war-torn Donbas, firing upon them 17
times, the press service of the Joint Forces Operation said this morning. As a
result, three Ukrainian soldiers were killed, seven were wounded and two
suffered combat injuries. Among the areas fired upon was Bohdanivka-Petrivske
in the Luhansk region, where a mutual forces withdrawal had occurred in early
November. Automatic grenade launchers and rifles were used in the attack. Also
on Mar. 10, a soldier died who had been hospitalized with severe head injuries
on Mar. 3, the Ukrinform news agency said.

Russian President Putin issued on Mar. 7 a series of
orders to implement reforms to the migratory and citizenship legislation of
Russia, the Interfax news agency reported that day. These reforms are part of
the State Migratory Policy Concept for 2019-2025. Among them is eliminating the
temporary resident status, and granting citizenship exclusively based on
permanent residency status. Besides a general procedure, a simplified procedure
will be implemented for the citizens of post-Soviet countries, including
Ukraine. The text didn’t make clear whether renouncing one’s native citizenship
is required, though allowing dual citizenship had been mentioned in prior discussions
of the reforms. 

This morning, the Federation Council of Russia
approved a bill to recognize the citizens of Ukraine and Belarus as Russian speakers
without testing, the TASS news agency reported. The law enables Ukrainian and
Belarusian citizens to qualify for the simplified procedure for gaining Russian
citizenship, without having to undergo an interview, the text said.

Zenon Zawada: These are
two prongs among numerous fronts in Russian President Putin’s hybrid war
against Ukrainian statehood. In continuing to launch military offensives in
Donbas (in violation of the Minsk Accords), Putin is keeping pressure on the
Zelensky administration to cave into his demands at the negotiating table to
resolve the war. This strategy has worked for the last five years, resulting in
Ukrainians electing last year a pragmatic, unprincipled president (and
parliament), who are gradually normalizing relations with Russia. Zelensky is
currently working to concede to Russian demands on Donbas.

To complete its conquest of Ukraine, the Putin
administration is now acting to make its dual citizens millions of Ukrainians,
who reside throughout the country. In this way, Russia will claim the legal and
moral right to use force to protect “their rights.” And Zelensky stated from
the outset, in his inaugural address, that he favors creating dual citizenship
for Ukrainians, having already initiated working groups to develop the
mechanism.

So if events continue on their present course, we can
expect Ukraine to gradually return to Russia’s sphere of influence. The key
benchmarks will be the conditions of a Donbas peace agreement (which can only
be Ukraine’s capitulation), and how Zelensky will react to Russian efforts to
grant Ukrainian citizens dual citizenship. Whether or not an IMF loan agreement
is signed is not especially critical, considering Russia wouldn’t mind Ukraine
defaulting on it.