Putin isn’t interested in a Donbas peace agreement, Volker says

Russian President Putin is not interested in reaching
any peace agreement to resolve the war in Donbas, said Kurt Volker, the former
U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, in an interview with the eurointegration.com.ua
news site published on Feb. 18. “The most likely scenario is the occupation of
Donbas will continue. Putin will continue to say ‘they’re not there,’ and will
create constant problems and pressure on Kyiv. We in the U.S. have made quite a
bit of an effort to understand the intentions of Russia. And our conclusion is
this – it’s not planning to change anything. And that applies not only to
Donbas. Russia is not planning to go along any ‘Russian path.’ It is not
planning to become successful! It will extend the Donbas occupation, pouring in
enormous loads of money without any reason,” he said. Russia’s ultimately goal
in Ukraine is “for a government to emerge in Kyiv that will be indulgent and
servile to Moscow”, he said, adding, “Or for Ukraine to disintegrate. But I
believe that the more desired option for Russia is control.”

Volker offered strong support for most of the steps
taken to resolve the warfare by the Zelensky administration, which demonstrate
to the world that “Ukraine is striving to resolve the conflict, that you want
peace, you are ready to conduct negotiations, you see room for compromise, that
you are ready to meet, that you want an exchange of prisoners, that you are
acting proactively,” he said. “I believe that is a wise tactic because it
prevents accusations addressed towards Ukraine.” President Zelensky’s proposal
for a police force patrolling the region consisting of Ukrainian, OSCE and
local officials is “entirely logical,” but not realistic, said Volker said in
the interview, which is the first since his resignation in September. In case
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo decides to approve another special envoy to
Ukraine, Volker said he has recommended Stephen Biegun, who was sworn in as
deputy U.S. secretary of state in December.

Zenon Zawada: It’s
important to read between the lines in Volker’s statements, which are
politically loaded, in our view. When he says “Putin isn’t interested in reaching
a peace agreement,” Volker is really saying that Russia will not agree to a
compromise that will return Donbas under conditions that will preserve
Ukrainian sovereignty. But Volker truly understands that Putin would be more
than happy to return to Donbas to Ukraine under Russian-imposed conditions.
When Volker says “Russia is not planning to become successful,” he is really
saying that its self-imposed isolation from the international community is
coming at a great cost to its economy.

When Volker says “Russia is pouring in enormous loads
of money without any reason,” he is really trying to get the Russian elites to
reconsider the enormous cost of the war, and what they have lost as a result.
Indeed, the Putin administration has numerous calculated and rational reasons
to pursue the war in Donbas, which include, but are not limited to, (1)
preventing Ukraine from improving social and economic conditions, (2) keeping
Ukraine in its sphere of influence to take advantage of trade and labor, 
(3) maintaining the narrative of a foreign enemy to redirect the Russian
public’s attention, and (4) convincing the Russian public of the futility of
the reforms being attempted by Ukrainians and justifying the Russian oligarchy.

At the same time, Volker is on the mark when he says
local elections won’t occur in Donbas this year, adding that he never heard any
Ukrainian official set that goal in any formal negotiations. What he is really
doing with this remark is advising the Zelensky administration not to try to fulfill
this goal carelessly, and better to avoid it altogether. This also implies that
statements on pursuing Donbas local elections in October
are intended so far to feed media narratives to be consumed by the public, as
part of a PR campaign to make it appear that it is doing everything possible
for peace. In our view, this could backfire by raising public expectations for
peace, which will only end in disappointment when they fail to be achieved.

Volker was careful to avoid criticizing the
Zelensky administration, offering only words of support and hints at what
policies need to be pursued and avoided. We can’t help but think that he and
fellow American diplomats, in their private discussions, are very concerned
about the Zelensky administration’s plans to
offer concessions to Russia in
achieving peace, which we believe to be serious. Without some kind of peace in
Donbas, Zelensky’s public support will begin to fall dramatically in the
absence of structural reforms, improved rule of law, a legitimate fight against
corruption and improving economic conditions.