Donbas war overseer Surkov officially dismissed

Russian President
Putin officially dismissed on Feb. 18 Presidential Adviser Vladislav Surkov,
who is widely recognized to have overseen the Russian military aggression in
Ukraine and the war in Donbas since it began in April 2014. Recall, Surkov’s departure from the Kremlin was first announced on
Jan. 25,
after which it was speculated that he would remain involved in overseeing
Russia’s campaign of military aggression in Donbas. The day before, the Kremlin
announced the appointment of Dmitry Kozak to the post of presidential
administration deputy head, and was widely recognized to be taking over the
responsibility of managing the military aggression in Donbas and the talks to
fulfill the Minsk Accords.

Russian President
Putin exclusively determines what actions to take in Ukraine, said Kurt Volker,
the former U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, in an interview with the
eurointegration.com.ua news site published on Feb. 18. This view was echoed the
same day by Mykhaylo Pohrebynskiy, a veteran political observer and consultant
to former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma. The Russian president “determines
by 100%, not 90%, the positions on our issues,” the expert said in a television
interview. “He hasn’t submitted his resignation so far. This means that that
there likely won’t be any drastic changes.” Regarding Surkov’s future, he said
he will “somehow remain in the system because he is too valuable a resource.”

Zenon Zawada: Many analysts have dismissed the
significance of Surkov’s departure, which had been speculated for more than a year, and have asserted that Russia’s
plans in Ukraine remain unchanged. However, considering that there was an apparent conflict in the Kremlin as to whether to keep Surkov
involved in Donbas, we believe his departure is a significant event indicating
that Putin is looking for a more flexible approach in dealing with Ukrainian
and Western counterparts.

Rather than seeking a compromise with Ukraine (and Belarus) though,
Putin is looking for new approaches to achieving his ultimate fantasy of
renewing the Soviet Union and including these two nations in the project by the
time his presidential term ends in 2024. It was Kozak who helped broker the
exchanges of war prisoners and the return of confiscated Ukrainian navy ships
and crew. Besides moving Putin closer to his geopolitical goals, these small gains
will also serve to improve the image of Russians among European officials with
the goal of further relaxing sanctions, which Surkov had insisted, is
unrealistic.