Peace summit planned for April might be postponed, Ukraine minister says

The Normandy Format summit planned for April might
have to be postponed, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko told reporters
on Feb. 15 at the Munich Security Conference. Nonetheless, the Normandy Format
foreign ministers engaged in bilateral negotiations at the conference, whose
main goal was to arrange an April meeting, he said, as reported by the
eurointegration.com.ua news site. The same day, Ukrainian President Zelensky
told the conference that Ukraine is doing everything possible for the next
summit to occur in April as planned. “Our key task now is to ensure the
unwavering fulfillment of the agreements reached in Paris,” Zelensky said in
his speech. “Ukraine is ready and working on this daily. Every day, step by
step, we are moving along the path to peace. But this is a two-way street, and
we are waiting for steps in response.”

Russia will base its decision on engaging in the
Normandy Format summit in April on Ukraine’s progress in fulfilling the
security and political agreements reached at the December summit, Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko told the rbc.ru news site in Munich
on Feb. 16. “This applies to the withdrawal of forces, a ceasefire, demining,
implementing the Steinmeier formula in legislation and some other things,” he
said. Among the main obstacles at the moment is “the absence of any readiness
of Kyiv to a normal dialogue with Donetsk and Luhansk,” he said. “This
obligation is egregiously not being fulfilled, though it is one of the main
conditions of the Minsk package.” At the same conference, Zelensky said he will
not engage in direct negotiations with the leaders of the self-declared Donetsk
and Luhansk People’s Republics.

Zenon Zawada: We maintain
our consistent position that the Zelensky administration will go to great
lengths to achieve a peace agreement in Donbas, including making significant
concessions to Russia. The Zelensky administration is very concerned about its
support from the exhausted public, which is expecting Zelensky to
pull off some kind of an end to the war (even miraculously and
unrealistically).

Therefore, we believe it’s more likely than not
that the next Normandy Format summit will occur this spring, if not in April.
We believe numerous obscure agreements will be reached in tacit meetings – as
Andriy Yermak has a penchant for
doing – and many of the administration’s declared
red lines – that can’t be violated on the path to peace – will
be blurred.