Local elections planned for October, including occupied Donbas, Yermak says

Ukraine is planning
to hold local elections nationally at the end of October, which should include the
occupied territories of Donbas, Presidential Aide Andriy Yermak told the KRYM
YouTube channel in an interview published on Feb. 1. “The next meeting of
leaders in the Normandy Format will occur in three months. I hope it occurs and
Ukraine will arrive at this meeting with a full package of agreements. I hope
that we take such steps that local elections, based on Ukrainian law, will
occur on all of Ukraine’s territory at the end of October,” said Yermak, who is
among the closest advisers to President Zelensky.

At the same time,
these elections can’t be held in occupied Donbas if illegal armed formations
are present there, and if Ukraine doesn’t control the border, which would
violate Ukrainian law. “If some kind of guarantees are necessary, something
else, let’s talk about that. I have experience in various difficult
negotiation. And there is a need to listen, even if there is currently an
absolutely unappealing position from another side. But for some kind of movement
forward, one needs to listen, to understand this philosophy and to attempt to
do everything – not conceding one’s own interests – to find an exit from this
situation,” Yermak said.

Zenon Zawada: Yermak’s remarks confirm the
strictly short-term pragmatic approach of the Zelensky administration in
dealing with most political issues, especially in resolving the war in Donbas
and fulfilling the Minsk Accords. The Zelensky team has approached the Putin
administration with a blank slate, assuming that it wants the same thing as it
does, which is a resolution to the armed conflict. We have said that this is
the correct approach in principle, as long as Zelensky’s team understands that
Putin’s
ultimate goal in Donbas is bring as much of the Ukrainian territory under the
Kremlin’s control, in one way or another

What happens in
fulfilling the Minsk Accords and holding local elections in occupied Donbas
will make or break the Zelensky presidency and his government. Reaching a peace
agreement this year, even with severe concessions, will forgive all sins for
many Ukrainians (particularly in Zelensky’s core electorate of southeastern
residents). As long as he deals with the pro-Western opposition in an effective
way, a peace deal will ensure some degree of stability in Ukraine until 2024.
Failure to reach a peace deal will disrupt the support of his core electorate,
which is already beginning to feel disillusionment from its native son.

We continue to believe the Zelensky administration will go to great
lengths to fulfill the Minsk Accords to resolve the armed conflict, and it will
use unorthodox and tacit tactics in doing so. It will have to inevitably blur the
red lines that is has claimed to be committed to, which
Yermak himself has indicated he is willing to do.