Economy-oriented Kozak replaces Surkov as Kremlin overseer of Donbas

Vladislav Surkov, the Russian presidential aide who
oversaw the war in Donbas, decided to resign from his position, as announced on
Jan. 25 by his close associate, Aleksey Chesnakov, the director of the Center
of Political Situations. He cited “the change in course in the Ukrainian
tangent” as the reason for Surkov’s departure. The announcement was confirmed
the same day by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who assured the public “there
aren’t changes in the course of the Ukrainian tangent.” Russian President Putin
hasn’t issued any decree on Surkov’s departure, he said.

Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close associate to Putin,
will replace Surkov as the Kremlin’s overseer of Ukrainian affairs, as widely
reported by the mass media. He was promoted by Putin on Jan. 24 to the post of
deputy head of the Russian Presidential Administration after having served as
deputy head of the Russian government for 11 years. Kozak differs from Surkov
in that he views events in Donbas from a mostly economic viewpoint and is
seeking to reboot the Russian economy with the removal of sanctions, Chesnakov
said in August, as reported by the strana.ua news site on Jan. 25. On the other
hand, Surkov opposed compromising on Donbas since he didn’t expect the U.S. to
relax sanctions, nor allow the Europeans to do so.

Zenon Zawada: Surkov’s
resignation is a reaction to Kozak being appointed the prior day. We believe these
events point to the Kremlin intensifying its efforts to fulfill the Minsk
Accords this year and resolve the war in Donbas. Moreover, Zelensky reiterated
on Jan. 26 that “more efforts are needed to try to end” the war after two
Ukrainian soldiers were killed that day.

So we see enhanced prospects for a breakthrough in
reaching a peace agreement by the summer, though no one can offer any
likelihood other than 50/50.

It’s also worth considering that Kozak is a native
of Ukraine (though spending his entire adult life in Russia), which improves
even slightly the chances of his efforts for peace being taken seriously. Among
his first foreign policy projects, Kozak led efforts to create a federation
government in Moldova granting Transnistria the ability to block Euro-Atlantic
integration, which collapsed in 2003, the eurointegration.com.ua news site
reported on Jan. 27. Kozak is likely to want to avoid making the same mistakes,
namely proposals that were too extreme, that caused Russia to lose its anchor
on Moldova.