Putin announces sweeping reforms amid Cabinet resignation

Russian President Putin announced plans for major
structural reforms to the government in his annual State of Russia address to
the State Duma on Jan. 15, shifting much authority from the presidency to the
Duma, which is Russia’s parliament. Putin also stressed the Russian prime
minister would gain more independence and responsibility under the reforms. The
very authority to select the prime minister would shift from the president to
parliament, with no veto power. The reforms would also enhance of the authority
of regional governors.

The same day, the Russian Cabinet of Ministers
announced its resignation, led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who said his
resignation was necessary for Putin “to make all decisions” and assumed the
position of deputy head of the presidential Security Council. Medvedev was
replaced by Russian Tax Service Head Mikhail Mishustin, a bureaucrat with no
political base.

Putin’s reforms, which will require the Duma’s
approval of constitutional amendments, were widely speculated to be part of his
plans to return to an enhanced prime minister post, while reducing the
presidency to a figurehead. At the same time, observers speculated that Putin
might ultimately decide to retain power by other means, including ruling from
behind the scenes as the head of the Security Council, or trying to forge a
renewed Soviet Union by 2024 in a supranational structure between Russia,
Belarus and parts of Ukraine.

Putin made no direct mention of Ukraine in his address,
but observers in Ukraine noted the planned reforms include statutes to
prioritize Russian domestic legislation, with the Constitution as the
foundation, over international law and agreements. This is intended to prevent
any possible attempts by future Russian leaders to return Crimea to Ukraine and
essentially extends Russia’s war with Ukraine indefinitely, noted Vitaliy
Portnikov, a political pundit in Ukraine.

Zenon Zawada: These
reforms are not merely an attempt by Putin to retain his grip on power in
Russia, but to cement his Russian World ideology and his desired role in world
history as Russia’s 21st century savior. Though few believe a liberal democracy
will emerge in Russia after Putin’s departure in 2024, Putin nonetheless is
taking the steps to preempt even the remote possibility.

What Putin’s plans mean for Ukraine is what we have
said since the start of the war in Donbas, which is that this is an existential
struggle for survival between two rival nations that have been perpetually at
war. Either Russia will triumph with Ukraine’s dissolution, Ukraine will
survive amid the Russian Federation’s collapse, or both nation-states will be
left in ruins. But Putin and his advisers will be working especially hard to
provoke Ukraine’s dissolution by 2024.