Peace deal on Donbas possible in two years, Taylor, Jr. says

It’s possible that Russia and Ukraine will reach a
peace agreement on Donbas in the next year or two, said outgoing acting U.S.
ambassador William Taylor, Jr. in an interview with leading journalists
published on Dec. 27 in several news media. The incentive for Russia to agree
to a peace deal are ongoing sanctions, he said. “They are working and they
truly are painful. I think Putin would like to remove them even now. So a path
needs to be prepared to enable him to exit from Donbas and save face,” he said.
The most complicated obstacle to peace is transferring control of the
Russian-Ukrainian border in Donbas, he said. It can be resolved by transferring
control to an international force such as an OSCE or UN mission, he said.
“After all, elections on this territory can’t occur as long as Russians are
present there and as long as Russians control the border,” he said.

Ukraine continues to draw active support and respect
from both the Democratic and Republican parties of the U.S., Taylor Jr. said, as
was most evidenced by the December U.S. Senate vote in factor of the Nord
Stream 2 sanctions. The Ukraine military aid bill has increased USD 50 mln to
USD 300 mln, which is more evidence. These funds have already been approved in
the budget authorization bill, and will be approved next year in the
appropriations bill, he said.

Taylor, Jr. served as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine
between 2006 and 2009. He was reappointed as U.S. Charges d’Affaires ad interim
in June 2019. Taylor, Jr. offered among the most detailed testimony in the
impeachment hearings against U.S. President Trump for criminal changes of
allegedly withholding military aid for Ukraine in exchange for political
favors. In a video posted on Twitter on Dec. 31, Taylor, Jr. said he will be
replaced by Kristina Kvien until the U.S. Congress approves a new ambassador.
Kvien was appointed chief of mission of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine in May 2019
after Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was pre-emptively removed by the Trump
administration, allegedly for political dealings against the U.S.
president. 

Zenon Zawada: Taylor, Jr.
offered no breaking news in his outgoing interview, largely stating what is
obvious to most Ukraine observers. As the U.S. ambassador, Taylor, Jr. has an
obligation to keep a positive spin on events in Ukraine, particularly the
future. At the same time, he is revealing a glaring weakness in U.S. foreign
policy towards Russia when repeating the five-year old mantra that “sanctions
will force Russia to peace.” If Russia was truly concerned about sanctions, it
would have ended the aggression years ago. It’s quite obvious that Russia has
not only adapted to life under sanctions, but has developed a plan to resist
them for the foreseeable future. Moreover, political events in the West have
consistently unfolded in Russia’s favor, with the gradual relaxation of
sanctions increasingly likely.

We share the view of Taylor, Jr. that transferring
control of the Russian-Ukrainian border in Donbas is possible with the
involvement of OSCE or UN peacekeepers. Yet we are doubtful the Kremlin will
agree to such a plan since it views that as surrendering too much control to
organizations that it considers to be, in essence, instruments of U.S. foreign
policy. In fact, we view the current geopolitical situation as quite favorable
for the Kremlin to expand its aggression in Ukraine, as is widely being
speculated.

We expect Russia will impose its version of a peace
deal on the Zelensky administration ahead of the next Normandy Format summit
scheduled for April, including holding elections before control of the border
is returned to Ukraine. Regardless of whether the Zelensky administration
agrees to capitulate to Russian demands, a large minority segment of the
population (one-quarter to one-third) will be highly dissatisfied (eastern
Ukrainians will be upset with the failure to find peace, while western
Ukrainians will reject capitulation). And then the Kremlin will intensify
fanning the flames of this inevitable conflict with the goal of sowing domestic
strife. It has already begun to do this, as pro-Kremlin politicians and pundits
in Ukraine have been actively criticizing the Zelensky administration in recent
weeks for failing to fulfill its campaign promises, even calling for the prime
minister’s resignation after just three months in office.