Zelensky refused to support withdrawal along entire Donbas frontline

Ukrainian President Zelensky refused to support “the
withdrawal of forces and equipment along the entire conflict line” during the
Normandy Format summit this month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said
on Russian television on Dec. 22. A month before, such a phrase had been
included in the draft communique, Lavrov said, yet Zelensky announced at the
summit “rather forcefully” that he couldn’t support it, despite being among the
goals of the Minsk Accords. Zelensky even rejected Russian President Putin’s
proposal to include the call for withdrawal along the entire conflict line even
in principle, Lavrov said.

“We are supposed to move towards this goal. President
Zelensky said that he couldn’t support this because it’s a very far off goal
and the withdrawal that occurred at three points – Stanytsia Luhanska,
Petrivske and Zolote – took more than five months. Therefore, if it to
extrapolate that, withdrawal at such a pace will take seven or even ten years.
So he can only agree to the Normandy Format calling upon the (Trilateral)
Contact Group to agree to a withdrawal at three (more) points,” Lavrov said.

Overall, Zelensky demonstrated “a categorical refusal”
to fulfill his main election campaign promise of withdrawing forces and ending
the shooting, Lavrov said in the broadcast of the First Channel television
network. “This is a serious indicator that even on the main issue of his
election campaign – when Volodymyr Zelensky said he wants to end the warfare
above all and for people to stop dying – his hands are tied even on that,
apparently. He either has some obligations to those who don’t want any end to
the conflict, or he simply understands that he can have problems at home,”
Lavrov said.

Zenon Zawada: Lavrov is
wrong in these comments when he says that Zelensky is categorically refusing to
fulfill his main election campaign promise. It would have been foolish for
Zelensky to capitulate immediately, and if that’s his true intention, it has to
be done gradually. We believe Zelensky has no choice but to eventually submit
to Russian demands in order to preserve the support of his core electorate for
both him and his party. And we believe he can be made to do so with gradual
compromises, as with the small concessions Russia
gained on Dec. 9.

Even without these concessions, Zelensky’s electorate
will grow impatient by the summer, especially with no improvement with key
concerns, such as cooling consumer prices (amid the strong hryvnia), creating
jobs, fighting corruption and establishing rule of law.

Lavrov is correct in his comments in that Zelensky is,
at this moment, failing to deliver on his main election campaign promise –
which essentially got him elected – of doing everything he could to stop the
killing in Donbas and end the warfare. We are confident Zelensky’s public
support will begin to drop steeper if this promise isn’t starting to be
fulfilled by the summer.

Ultimately, Lavrov’s comments are part of the
Russian campaign to apply pressure to Zelensky to capitulate to its terms in
fulfilling the Minsk Accords. We can expect this pressure to intensify in 2020,
particularly ahead of the planned April Normandy Format summit. Of course, the
talks to secure natural gas supplies for Ukrainian consumers won’t go as
smoothly as the transit agreement reached in recent days.