Support for extending Donbas warfare lowest in more than two years, poll says

Only about 16% of the Ukrainian public supports
extending the warfare in Donbas until renewal of full Ukrainian control on all
the territory, the lowest level for this option in more than two years,
according to poll figures published on Dec. 19. About 38% of the public
supports halting military activity and freezing the conflict as a solution,
which has been the most popular option for the last two years. Another 22%
supports granting these territories autonomous status in Ukraine. Only about 8%
supports expelling these territories from Ukraine. The poll was conducted of
2,500 respondents between Dec. 13 and 17 by the Rating Sociological Group.

Zenon Zawada: This poll
merely confirms our view that Zelensky’s core electorate of urban southeastern
Ukrainians expect him to end the warfare in Donbas, whether by freezing it or
fulfilling the Minsk Accords. His ratings will drop if he doesn’t accomplish
that by the summer. The vast majority of those who support extending the war
live in the westernmost regions, where Zelensky isn’t popular.

This poll also reaffirms our view that the public is
disoriented in the sense that it isn’t aware of realistic options in dealing with
the Donbas warfare. In recent weeks, the Voice party, led by Sviatoslav
Vakarchuk, has been promoting the proposal of a frozen conflict in Donbas,
which has been the most popular solution for years now. But the reality is the
Russians are highly unlikely to agree to a frozen conflict because it doesn’t
solve their geopolitical goals in Ukraine.

In our view, the two realistic options to resolving
the warfare in Donbas are extending the armed resistance while relying on
Western sanctions, which is what former President Poroshenko had advocated (a
proposal soundly rejected by the Ukrainian public in this year’s elections).
The other option is fulfilling the Minsk Accords under Russian conditions,
which we believe Zelensky will have no choice but to accept.