Putin to “fiercely” defend his positions at Normandy Format summit

Russian President Putin will “fiercely” defend his
previously held positions going into the Normandy Format summit in Paris on
Dec. 9, the kommersant.ru news site reported this morning, citing anonymous
sources in the Kremlin preparing for the summit. The Kremlin won’t accept
intentions announced to review, edit or readapt the Minsk Accords, the source
said. Putin’s single expectation is to promote the resolution of the armed
conflict in Donbas, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Dec. 6, as reported by the
tass.ru news site. “To again ensure a general understanding of the lack of
alternatives to fulfilling the Minsk Accords, and to not allow attempts on any
kind of watering down of the Minsk Accords,” he said.

In a Dec. 9 morning tweet, Ukrainian Foreign Minister
Vadym Prystaiko said the Ukrainian government’s main priorities are releasing
war prisoners in Russia jails and returning the citizens of the occupied
territories. Ukraine will seek “a full and permanent ceasefire; control over
the border of a single, undivided state; the disarmament and removal of
illegally armed formations; and local elections based on Ukrainian law.” The
main red line not to be violated is “the internationally recognized state
border of Ukraine, he tweeted.

The Zelensky administration has reportedly proposed
creating a municipal guard in the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk
consisting of representatives from the local districts, the OSCE and Ukraine,
the tass.ru news site reported, citing an anonymous source. Peskov said the
Kremlin learned of this from the mass media and can’t comment. Meanwhile, U.S.
Ambassador to the OSCE James Gilmore told a Dec. 6 press conference that Russia
is blocking OSCE efforts to create a Ukrainian-Russian observation mission
along the border in occupied Donbas that would prevent the transit of arms and
contraband.

Zenon Zawada: That Putin
will defend his positions fiercely isn’t news to anyone, nor can it be
surprising after the Zelensky administration has made numerous statements reflecting positions
that can only lead to Ukraine’s capitulation to Russian demands. We can expect
the Zelensky strategy to try to appear fierce, announcing only a few specific
agreements with vague details and numerous qualifiers that bear the signs of
capitulation. And we can expect that in the next several months, more details
will be released gradually, involving more agreements that will eventually
complete the picture of capitulation. The Zelensky administration will never
describe its actions explicitly as capitulation, but it will be understood as
such, both by those in favor and those opposed.

We view securing an end to warfare in Donbas as the
only chance for Zelensky’s political survival, firmly securing the support his
core electorate of young, urban southeastern Ukrainians for the remainder of
his presidency, if not longer. Otherwise, Zelensky will not have anything
significantly tangible to deliver his voters for at least the next two years,
while being under fierce attack from the Russians, as well as his pro-Western
opponents in Ukraine. That is why we expect the Zelensky administration to give
Russian President Putin much of what he wants.