5 December 2019
Ukraine’s
pro-Western forces are planning a maidan-style protest starting Dec. 8 – the
eve of the Normandy Format summit in Paris – at the President’s Office on
Bankova Street, the wz.lviv.ua news site reported on Dec. 5. The Movement to
Resist Capitulation has announced a 24-hour “Guard on Bankova” demonstration on
its Facebook page, issuing calls for the public to bring to the President’s
Office wood, metal cooking cauldrons, thermoses, blankets, portable ovens,
electric generators, fuel and food, the news site reported.
“We should
demonstrate our unanimous attitude to this problem. But at the same time, I am
convinced that these actions should be legal and peaceful. There are grounds
for concerns that uncontrolled protests can be used by the Kremlin. Should
internal armed conflicts emerge in Ukraine, God forbid, this can become a basis
for a Russian foreign invasion,” said Ihor Koliushko, among the protest
organizers and board chairman of the Centre of Policy and Legal Reforms, which
is financed by Western institutions.
Zenon Zawada: We expect these protests to
escalate gradually since we expect Zelensky will upset Ukraine’s pro-Western
forces by eventually capitulating to most of Putin’s demands. That means within
a few months, the presence of scores of tens (if not hundreds) and the smell of
food cooking in cauldrons should become quite a disturbance for the president,
who promised to maintain a liberal and democratic atmosphere in the capital
(and not to use force against protesters).
In the event that Zelensky resists capitulation, we expect his electoral
support to plummet. However, those who will be drafted into the war, suffering
economically, or opposed to the land market are poorly organized and incapable
of mounting a large protest movement, to the president’s advantage. His main
threat at that point will be in parliament as his once-powerful People’s
Servant faction stands to disintegrate gradually.