Domestic rebellions more likely than Russian invasion, in the view of experts

Russia will never concede to Ukraine leaving its geopolitical
sphere of influence but open military aggression is not among the largest
threats, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Ruslan Khomchak said in an interview
published on Nov. 25. “It’s my conviction, and based on what the General Staff
has analyzed, we reached the conclusion that open military aggression by Russia
is not among the main threats, but it’s in the list of extreme outcomes, though
among the most remote,” Khomchak told the Ukrinform news agency.

A large protest movement against a Donbas peace plan –
which will be viewed as capitulating to Russia – will result in the loss of
more Ukrainian territory, political pundit Vitaliy Portnikov told a television
talk show on Nov. 25. “If a large maidan begins, I guarantee you that we will
lose more territory. But that depends not on us, not on the people who go to
the maidan, but on the government. The government should understand that if it
provokes such events, then it will not simply lose power – and possibly some on
Bankova will lose their freedom and prospects – but we also will lose some
territory in Ukraine,” he said on the Espreso television network.

Recall, more than 5,000 protesters gathered
on Kyiv’s maidan on Nov. 21 to commemorate the start
of the EuroMaidan movement in 2013 and express opposition to President
Zelensky’s plans to end the warfare in Donbas, which they expect to be
capitulation. No tents were pitched on the maidan (Independence Square), but
nationalists pitched several tents at the President’s Office on Bankova Street.
It’s not clear if these tents are still standing.

Zenon Zawada: These
commentaries confirm our view that Russia will extend its campaign of
deconstructing Ukrainian statehood not by open military aggression, but the
“concealed intervention” approach that has been applied in the Donbas region.
This “aid and abet” approach has been rather successful and a useful template
to use if other regions of Ukraine revolt against decisions reached in Kyiv.
Overall, Russia’s strategy is to help Ukrainian citizens to undermine their own
statehood, which has been successful so far, especially considering the
Zelensky administration is on the path to capitulating to Russian geopolitical
demands.

Meanwhile, Portnikov is not the first political expert
to predict expanded warfare in Ukraine and the possible loss of more territory
if Zelensky pursues his plans for peace (viewed as capitulation by pro-Western
forces). This outcome is not inevitable, however. If the Zelensky
administration is able to prove the majority of the public supports its peace
(capitulation) efforts with a referendum, then those opposed to the plan will
be left without a moral foundation to base any protest or rebellion upon. Of
course, such a referendum could backfire for the government if the pro-Western
opposition mounts an effective information campaign.