Ukraine informs OSCE of readiness to withdraw at Petrivske

Ukraine has informed the OSCE of its readiness to
begin the withdrawal of soldiers and hardware in the Bohdanivka-Petrivske area
on the Donbas separation line once a ceasefire of seven days is upheld, Joint
Forces Operation Commander Volodymyr Kravchenko told a Nov. 4 press briefing,
as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. The last shooting in this
area, situated in the Luhansk region, was confirmed on Oct. 30, according to
Oleksandr Borshchevskiy, the head of the Joint Center for Control and Coordination.
That means that verification of the seven-day ceasefire can occur on Nov. 7 and
withdrawal can occur at noon on Nov. 8. Forces withdrawals have already
occurred at the Luhansk region towns of Stanytsia Luhanska and Zolote.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued a note of protest on
Nov. 4 against the visit of Russian Duma MP Aleksei Zhuravlov to the
Russian-controlled side of Zolote during the mutual withdrawal of forces there
that concluded on Nov. 1. The visit to the Luhansk region town was a “gross
violation by the Russian side of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
Ukraine,” the statement said. The Ukrainian government prohibited Zhuravlov
from entering Ukrainian territory in 2018. The note asked for confirmation and
explanation of Zhuravlov’s visit.

Zenon Zawada: All signs
are pointing towards a successful mutual withdrawal at Petrivske. The big
question now is whether a Normandy Format summit will be held this month as
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry is struggling to accomplish. In a Nov. 3 statement,
Russian President Putin said he will participate under conditions of “necessary
urgency.” We see this as a strategy of having the Ukrainians make as many
concessions as possible before finally agreeing to it. Putin is seeking a complete
capitulation and humiliation of Ukraine.

We believe a Normandy Format summit won’t occur
this month, for two reasons. It’s to Putin’s advantage to delay the meeting
until after the cut off in natural gas supplies expected on Jan. 1, which will
put Ukraine in an even weaker position at the negotiating table. Also, Ukraine
may fail to meet IMF requirements for a new loan program by the year end,
further worsening Ukraine’s negotiating position.