Germany, Russia welcome Donbas forces withdrawal

German Chancellor
Merkel congratulated Ukrainian President Zelensky on the withdrawal of forces
in the Luhansk region town of Zolote during an Oct. 30 phone call. They
discussed plans to withdraw forces at the Luhansk town of Petrivske after a
seven-day ceasefire, preparations for the next Normandy Format summit and the
future of the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine, the Ukrainian
president’s website said. Earlier that day, the German Foreign Ministry tweeted
“the start of the withdrawal of forces in Zolote is an important sign of hope
for the local population that true progress in the peace process is possible.
This should be continued in other districts.”

The Russian
government views the withdrawal of forces in Zolote positively, said on Oct. 30
Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko, as reported by the tass.ru news agency.
“It’s a positive process, but we need to wait for its completion,” he said. In
order to determine a date for the Normandy Format summit, Rudenko said the
withdrawal of forces and hardware needs to occur at all militarized areas along
the separation line in Donbas.

Russian President
Putin expressed more skepticism in his assessment of the withdrawal in Zolote,
blaming the slow duration of the process on Ukrainian
nationalist-paramilitaries. “In this case, it’s not such a complicated issue in
fact – the withdrawal of fighting sides along a separation line in two
population centers. This drags on for years. Now it’s understood why. Because
nationalists don’t want to leave and don’t want to release Ukrainian armies
from there. Truly a lot depends on this from the viewpoint of managing the
situation in Donbas.” Zelensky doesn’t appear to be a nationalist, Putin said,
“but it’s hard for me to say now whether he will be able to deal with them.” He
added, “The issue is whether he will complete to the end what he has said
publicly, and what he views as expedient in doing.”

Zenon Zawada: President Zelensky is succeeding in
creating an international consensus for his plans to withdraw forces along the
Donbas frontline. On this issue, an alliance has begun to emerge between the
Zelensky and Putin administrations for the withdrawal process against those
opposed, whom they have begun to dismiss as radicals and nationalists. At the
international level, particularly in the EU, it’s approaching the point where
there will be greater disappointment if the withdrawal fails, rather than
Ukraine having offered too many concessions to the Russians. For this very
reason, Putin will make the peace process as painful as possible for Ukraine,
confirming in his Oct. 30 comments that it will take years. It will be long and
painful not because of any nationalists, but to continue disrupting Ukraine’s
Western integration.

The
nationalist-paramilitaries who were rattling their sabers for weeks have been
unusually silent this week. If they still decide to mount a serious resistance,
it can threaten not only the withdrawal process, but Ukraine’s overall
stability. It’s possible they have come to the realization that disrupting the
withdrawal will play directly into the hands of the Kremlin, which has joined
the Zelensky administration in practically demonizing those Ukrainians opposed
to the withdrawal. It’s also possible that one of their key sponsors, Internal
Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov, has reined them in on behalf of the president.