Ukrainian forces withdrawal in Zolote begins

The withdrawal of
Ukrainian military forces from the separation line in the town of Zolote in the
Luhansk region began on Oct. 29, the press center of the Joint Operation Forces
(OOS) reported that morning. The withdrawal was made possible by a ceasefire
achieved in the region after the last shooting occurred on Oct. 18, army
spokesman Volodymyr Kravchenko told an Oct. 29 press briefing in the Donetsk
region city of Kramatorsk, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site.

 

The start of
withdrawal was confirmed that morning by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym
Prystaiko, who repeated to reporters that it was made possible by a ceasefire in
the immediate region that has been upheld since Oct. 18, or ten days. “We
upheld the seven days and have begun to withdraw,” he said, referring to the
Zelensky administration’s requirement of a seven-day ceasefire in an immediate
region for withdrawal. The next forces withdrawal will occur in the Luhansk
region town of Petrivske, Prystaiko said, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine
news agency.

 

As recently as the
morning of Oct. 30, reports contradicting claims of a Zolote ceasefire surfaced
from the OOS press center itself. The night of Oct. 28, Russian-backed forces
shot at residential buildings in the Zolote region, according to the Ukrainian
side of the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination (JCCC), as reported by
the OOS press service on its website on Oct. 30. A JCCC mobile group conducted
a photography expedition to confirm the shootings of residential buildings in
the Zolote-4 Popasnianskiy district of the Luhansk region, the website said,
posting the photographs of village houses with bullet holes in their walls. The
early morning of Oct. 29, the same day as the withdrawal announcement, the OOS
reported on its Facebook page at 01:32 local time ceasefire violations in the
Zolote area the night of Oct. 28. “Illegal armed formations of the Russian
Federation, announcing their readiness to conduct the withdrawal of forces and
hardware at withdrawal area No. 2, shot five times yesterday from high-caliber
machine guns, anti-tank grenade launchers, automatic grenade launchers, and
rifles in the five kilometer zone near withdrawal area No. 2 (Zolote 4),”
the Facebook post said.

 

Leading Ukrainian
news media reacted immediately to the Zolote withdrawal announcement by citing
the OOS’ own reports contradicting a ceasefire. The OOS press center reported
on Oct. 26 that fire from the Russian-backed forces occurred in the region of
Zolote, in violation of the ceasefire, reported the pravda.com.ua news site on
Oct. 29. It cited an OOS press center Facebook post the morning of Oct. 27 that
reported shots were fired “not far from Zolote-4 (in the bounds of the area of
withdrawal) – from high-caliber machine guns and other rifle fire.”

 

As more evidence of
ceasefire violations in the Zolote region in the last week, the pravda.com.ua
news site also cited an Oct. 23 Facebook post in which the OOS press center
reported “shootings in the area of withdrawal near Zolote” the prior day.
“Illegal armed formations of the Russian Federation, imitating readiness to
conduct a withdrawal of forces and hardware at withdrawal area No. 2, twice
yesterday fired shots treacherously from rifles towards withdrawal area No. 2
(Zolote-4),” the post said.

 

In response to the
pravda.com.ua reports, the OOS press center posted on its website a statement
that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) didn’t record shooting in the
Zolote region on Oct. 26. “For the sake of clearing up misunderstandings
surrounding the materials of the OOS press center, we are explaining that the
confirmation of shootings of OOS positions, and areas of withdrawal in
particular, are being conducted by the Ukrainian side and the OSCE SMM,” the
statement said. “The confirmation by OSCE SMM representatives of shootings is
based on information from the mission’s video cameras that are placed at various
areas of the separation line. Thereby, the shootings of areas of withdrawals in
Zolote-4 confirmed on Oct. 26, 2019 by the OOS weren’t confirmed by
representatives of the OSCE SMM.”

 

No paramilitary
resistance in the region of Zolote to the withdrawal has been reported so far,
despite repeated threats in the last week from National Corps Head Andriy
Biletsky. Several hundred nationalists and paramilitaries gathered in front of
the President’s Office in Kyiv the evening of Oct. 29 to engage in their latest
protest against what they consider to be Zelensky’s capitulation to Russia.

 

Zenon Zawada: It’s a confusing situation, to say
the least, when the Ukrainian leadership is claiming a ceasefire in Zolote has
been achieved for a week, while continuing to acknowledge reports to the
contrary, and at the same time stressing that the OSCE SMM doesn’t confirm the
OOS reports to the contrary. The decision to move forward with the forces
withdrawal in Zolote, without convincing evidence of a complete ceasefire in the
Zolote region, confirms our view that Zelensky will go
to great lengths
to end the warfare in Donbas, what his opponents and critics are characterizing
as capitulation. (It has all the signs of capitulation as well in our view,
which we strive to keep as objective as possible.)

 

Zelensky must
fulfill his promise to end the warfare in Donbas not only because it’s his most
famous campaign promise, but because none of his other promises can be fulfilled
in the short term. There will be no economic boom in Ukraine in the next two
years (despite the assertions of Zelensky and other top officials), a serious
fight against corruption isn’t being waged, nor are dramatic efforts being made
to reform the decrepit judiciary. (Quite the opposite, EU officials have warned the Zelensky administration against
its plans for the judiciary, which look like standard attempts to stack the
courts with loyal officials.)

 

In order to remain as president, Zelensky will need to deliver something
big and tangible to voters, which can only be an end to warfare in Donbas. If
accomplished, the political capital he will gain from that (regardless of the
geopolitical consequences) will be enough to carry him to the end of his
presidency, having secured the loyalty of his core electorate, which is urban
southeast Ukrainians.