Zelensky confronts hostile paramilitaries during visit to warfront

Ukrainian President
Zelensky visited this weekend the town of Zolote on the Donbas warfront as a
part of a campaign to build support for forces withdrawal and to confront the
paramilitaries who are opposed. In addition to meeting with soldiers and local
residents during his Oct. 25-26 visit, Zelensky held an informal outdoor
meeting with paramilitaries in uniforms who were armed and on the warfront
illegally, as alleged afterwards by the press service of the Joint Forces
Operation. The fighters didn’t belong to armed units authorized to be in area
for conducting military operations, the statement said.

“Listen, I am the
president of this country. I am 42 years old. I am not some kind of fool. I
came to you to tell you, ‘Take away your arms’,” Zelensky said in one
confrontation, as depicted in a 24-minute film on his two-day visit released on
Oct. 27. The paramilitary leader denied violating the law in the video. The
same day, the Interior Ministry press service reported that
veterans-paramilitaries in the area agreed to withdraw arms that were in their
legal possession.

In response to
Zelensky’s visit, Andriy Biletsky, the leader of the nationalist Azov
battalion’s National Corps political wing, issued a statement that
veterans-paramilitaries will defy the president’s orders to evacuate if a
withdrawal at Zolote begins. He characterized Zelensky’s tone in confronting
the veterans-paramilitaries as “brazen, everyday boorishness,” adding that the
video involved hired actresses demanding that the paramilitaries leave. “It’s
not for you to decide on whether to surrender our territory or not, but for
each of us, including above all those people who are involved in Ukraine’s
defense,” said Biletsky in a video statement, threatening to bring thousands of
paramilitaries to Zolote if need be.

Recall, the towns of
Zolote and Petrivske, both in the Luhansk region, are targeted by the Zelensky
administration for the next withdrawal of forces. Scores of paramilitary
fighters, led by members of the racialist-nationalist Azov battalion, many of
them armed, have already descended on the Zolote area to interfere with the
withdrawal should it begin. Russian President Putin
said on Oct. 11 that the presence of paramilitaries on the
frontlines is preventing the withdrawal of soldiers and hardware, calling upon
the Zelensky administration to demonstrate political will to begin the process.

Zenon Zawada: To defend his credibility on his
most important political issue, Zelensky needed to confront the paramilitaries
sooner or later. This weekend’s trip was a propaganda victory for the Zelensky
team, making the most of its film-making talent by releasing a 24-minute video
that is sure to solidify support for the president’s withdrawal proposal among
his supporters. The short film succeeds in portraying Zelensky as a man of
reason who is responding to the pleas of long-suffering local residents for
peace, while depicting the paramilitaries as outsiders who are out of touch
with the public and are not honest about their actions, particularly with their
possession of arms. It also portrays Zelensky as a man of strength and
convictions, willing to confront those challenging his authority.

We believe the video
was produced not only for the Ukrainian public, but also for the Kremlin, with
the intent of showing that Zelensky is serious enough about peace that he is
willing to rein in the Ukrainian paramilitaries. The video is part of a deliberate
strategy by the Zelensky administration to build a national consensus on the
withdrawal of forces, while depicting those opposed as unreasonable radicals.
It’s no coincidence that Zelensky’s confrontation was preceded a few days
earlier by People’s Servant MP Yevhen Shevchenko appearing on a Russian
political talk show to tell the Russian public that those opposed to Zelensky’s
peace plans are “radically oriented nationalists, whose politics rely on enmity
and war as a whole.”

Certainly, the
Kremlin is observing these events carefully and is continuing to exploit them
in its strategy of driving a rift in Ukrainian society between those interested
in peace, and those opposed to what they argue is capitulation, or the
surrender of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration goals. The only way we see for
Zelensky to deliver on his promise for peace – without triggering a civil war –
is to agree to Russian demands and hold a national referendum in favor. This
way, he will secure his core electorate of southeast Ukrainians (desiring the
unrealistic combination of peace with Russia and EU-integration), who will
provide for him a valuable support base for the remainder of his presidency. In
holding a referendum, Zelensky would be proving to the No Capitulation coalition
that the majority of Ukrainians support him.

Indeed, for as long as Zelensky demonstrates to his core electorate that
he is struggling to achieve peace (against the “radical nationalists”), they
will forgive him for failing to fulfill his secondary promises of lower utility
prices, fast economic growth and fighting corruption. We don’t see any other
way for Zelensky to preserve his presidency other than solidifying a public
consensus on surrendering to Russian demands (while not admitting it at the same
time). Extending the warfare beyond the spring will cause Zelensky to lose his
core voters, while gaining none. The Kremlin understands Zelensky – and his
supporters – have boxed themselves into a corner, which is why it will accept
nothing less than a complete and humiliating surrender.