Zelensky holds first major press conference, taking hundreds of questions

Volodymyr Zelensky held on Oct. 10 his first major
press conference since becoming inaugurated as Ukrainian president in May. In his
familiar showman style, the event was promoted as a press marathon, with
Zelensky declaring he would answer at least one question from any accredited
journalist interested. After eight hours, a representative from the National
Register of Records appeared and announced Zelensky broke the world record for
a national leader holding a press conference, the pravda.com.ua news site said.
In February 2017, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko spoke with
journalists for seven hours and 21 minutes. Zelensky ended up speaking for 14
hours, past midnight, with at least 300 journalists throughout the day.

Zenon Zawada: Zelensky
wanted to avoid speaking to the press until he had several months to become
comfortable as president and familiar with the key issues at hand. For a man
entirely new to politics, Zelensky demonstrated a solid command of the main
problems of Ukraine, as well as the political bureaucracy that he has to work
with. He continued to assume the persona of an average Joe coming to politics, feigning
naivety and ignorance of some key matters. He continues to play this role,
despite some scandalous events that have occurred under his watch, including
the arson fire at former National Bank Governor Valeria Gontareva’s residence.

Many of Zelensky’s responses to pressing issues were
vague, insisting that some things must be kept secret (which is often the case)
and using the crutch that he has only been a short time in office and reform
needs more time (also justifiable). In this sense, the Ukrainian public –
especially mass media – is continuing to give him a pass for not demonstrating
the results that they want on various matters. Certainly, he gained much credit
with the public with the early September prisoner exchange. And Zelensky is
correct in stating that his administration has a genuine greater desire to end
the warfare than his predecessor, who is accused of profiting from the war.

Yet Zelensky’s honeymoon with the public will come to
an end once the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Day, when Russia will cut
its natural gas supply to Ukraine. Fortunately, the government has prepared and
accumulated enough reserves to get through the winter. But the stoppage will
have a ripple effect throughout politics and economics. And the public will
suddenly view Zelensky with a much more critical view.

Investors must consider going forward: (1) To what
extent will Zelensky be willing to capitulate to Russian demands to end the
warfare in Donbas? At the press marathon, Zelensky repeated his position that
the new draft of the law on the special status of Donbas will not allow for the
region’s autonomy. Yet the Russians won’t accept anything less, and the
legislation could be drafted as such that most of the conditions for autonomy
will be established without calling it as such.

(2) Will Zelensky’s declared war on corruption consist
of court convictions and imprisonments of high-profile figures? If several
prominent politicians and businessmen are not punished for corruption, the
Ukrainian public will understand that the Zelensky administration is conducting
business as usual – with the standard rotation of oligarchs in charge
(Kolomoisky, this time) – and the war on corruption is not serious. In which
case, we can’t expect any breakthrough in this area.

(3) To what extent will Zelensky restrain the
influence of his main campaign sponsor, Ihor Kolomoisky? During the press
marathon, Zelensky said he will not interfere with the courts, even when it
comes to key rulings that can undermine Ukraine’s economic stability
(particularly an upcoming decision on
Kolomoisky’s appeal against Privatbank’s nationalization). Zelensky could be
stating this for the press, but acting otherwise behind the scenes. Yet in the
current condition of Ukraine’s courts – which have grown even more inconsistent
and susceptible to corruption since Zelensky has become president – his hands
off attitude could allow for stronger forces to take over and “secure” rulings
that are not only unjust, but undermine national security.

Several developments indicate Kolomoisky’s growing
business influence, such as his recent taking control of electricity producer
Centrenergo (CEEN UK). Yet veteran journalist Serhiy Leshchenko reported early
this month on Zelensky’s resistance to Kolomoisky’s appetites, such as
approving legislation to allow electricity imported from Belarus onto the
Ukrainian market. Zelensky also replaced the State Property Fund Head Vitaliy
Trubarov, who has favorable ties to Kolomoisky, with Dmytro Sennychenko, who is
aligned with Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk, as alleged by Leshchenko. So it
appears that, at minimum, tensions with Kolomoisky will continue throughout the
Zelensky presidency.