Donbas fighters undermined planned withdrawals, Ukraine minister says

A mutual withdrawal
of forces from two Luhansk frontline towns that was planned for Oct. 7 didn’t
occur owing to ceasefire violations by the Russian-backed fighters, Ukrainian
Foreign Minister Oleh Prystaiko confirmed that day. “The withdrawal was
supposed to begin today,” he told reporters. “Our negotiating teams agreed to
this in Minsk. To great regret, you know yourselves that that Petrivske and
Zolote were shot upon several days ago. Our decision was for the withdrawals to
begin on the seventh day after peace was maintained without shootings on these
specific areas.” As a result, the Ukrainian government will wait until a
ceasefire is achieved for seven consecutive days, he said.

The withdrawals
planned for Zolote and Petrivske involve the removal of Ukrainian soldiers
while maintaining fortification structures in place, Prystaiko said. If Ukraine
sees that the Russian-backed fighters are not fulfilling the agreements or are
planning aggressive actions, then Ukrainian soldiers will return to their
positions.

The Russian
Presidential Administration has a “certain influence” on the the
self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, but can’t guarantee the
withdrawal of forces, spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Oct. 7, said the
tass.ru news site. “You know that the Donbas republics are sovereign actors in
resolving this conflict,” he said, repeating the position that Russia is not a
side in the conflict.

Russian leaders are
not yet interested in meeting in the Normandy Format, Prystaiko told a
television talk show on Oct. 7. “The meeting is being delayed further and
further,” he said, adding his view that Putin is satisfied with the current
situation in Donbas. “These 1.5, maybe 2 bln that he spends to keep us tied to
himself – as he’s doing in Transnistria, Abkhazia and Ossetia – it seems to me
suits him,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: Russian President Putin has the
Ukrainian president just where he wants him, which is a political trap that
Zelensky set for himself when he and his
foreign minister set deadlines for ending warfare in Donbas. So it’s logical that Putin not
only extend the current situation, but exacerbate it by making the conditions
for ending warfare as difficult as possible for Zelensky. In this way, Putin
will either (1) get the capitulation that he is seeking from Ukraine, prompting
a possible violent conflict in Ukraine that also plays into Russia’s hands, or
(2) get Zelensky to discredit himself on his main campaign promise, undermining
his public trust and further destabilizing Ukraine’s political system.

We see the Zelensky
administration going to great lengths to end the warfare in Donbas, with
accusations of capitulation being quite legitimate. At that point, Zelensky’s
main challenge will be in dealing with those the thousands of peaceful
protesters, as well as those nationalists and paramilitaries who will be
violently opposed. In our view, a referendum on a peace deal will be the best
way for Zelensky to deal with his opposition. And the Zelensky team has already
expressed its fondness for this political instrument.