Ukraine agrees to Steinmeier formula to implement Minsk Accords

The Ukrainian government agreed on Oct. 1 to fulfill the
Minsk Accords to resolve the warfare in the Donbas region by implementing the
Steinmeier formula, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the same day. The
agreement was confirmed with the OSCE during the Trilateral Contact Group talks
in Minsk, he said. Zelensky made the announcement only after the agreement was
reported by Russian mass media. He offered a basic summary at a press briefing
that evening.

 

“The temporary law on the special order of local
self-governance of the Separate Districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions,
also known in the public as the law on Donbas special status, will take effect
on a permanent basis on conditions – please, this is very important – on
conditions when local elections are held there in accordance with the Constitution
and the laws of Ukraine, and also after the publication of the OSCE report that
the elections occurred in accordance with OSCE standards and international
standards of democratic elections,” Zelensky said.

 

That means no elections in the occupied regions of
Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as “Donbas”) will occur at gunpoint,
Zelensky said. The temporary law, which has been renewed each year since 2014,
will be replaced once it expires on Dec. 31 with a new law drafted by the
parliament in tight cooperation with the public, Zelensky said. “In this new
law, no red lines will be crossed, which is why there isn’t, and never will be
any capitulation,” he said.

 

At the Minsk talks on Oct. 1, an agreement was also
reached on the withdrawal of military forces from the frontline towns of Zolote
and Petrivske in the Luhansk region, Zelensky said. Meanwhile, a pedestrian
bridge should be completed by the end of November in the frontline town of
Stanytsia Luhanska, where the first successful mutual withdrawal of forces
occurred, as boasted by Zelensky. The last obstacles to the next Normandy
Format talks were removed on Oct. 1, Zelensky added, also promising a date
soon.

 

The approval of the Steinmeier formula was a precondition
set by the Russian government for holding the Normandy Format talks, said on
Oct. 2 People’s Servant MP Bohdan Yaremenko, the head of the parliamentary
foreign affairs committee, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site. The full
text of the agreed upon Steinmeier formula – consisting of two paragraphs – was
published on the kommersant.ru news site on Oct. 2. It was signed by former
President Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine’s representative to the Trilateral Contact
Group; Russia’s representative Boris Gryzlov; two representatives of the
occupied territories; and OSCE special representative Martin Sajdik. The same
day, the Steinmeier agreement was lauded by German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas,
while French President Macron called for its implementation.

 

Zenon Zawada: Both the
Minsk Accords, and Steinmeier formula for their implementation, remain vague
enough that their implications can’t be fully assessed without knowing the
eventual agreement on several critical points that remain undefined. These include
the precise conditions of elections to be held (including possible OSCE or UN
oversight), whether Ukraine’s Constitution will be amended to accommodate
Donetsk and Luhansk autonomy, the scope of the autonomy eventually achieved,
and the representation of Donetsk and Luhansk in Kyiv governing structures. At
the Oct. 1 press briefing, Zelensky said details will be hashed out at the
planned Normandy Format summit.

 

We believe the Zelensky administration has made key
mistakes in this process of implementing the Minsk peace accords, most notably
declaring an end to warfare as the most important priority and then setting a six-month deadline.
The president makes capitulation to Russian demands inevitable in revealing his
cards and restricting himself in this manner. The Zelensky administration
doesn’t view Donbas autonomy as hindering Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration
efforts, which we believe is a highly mistaken view.

 

We are confident that Russia will impose on the
Zelensky administration a version of the Minsk Accords that gives it an
effective veto on any decisions made in Kyiv that it disagrees with (through
its Donbas proxy). Former President Poroshenko described this process today as
creating a Moldovan Transnistria out of Donbas. Transnistria is legally
recognized as an autonomous territorial unit with special legal status.

 

In committing itself to a quick end to war, the
Zelensky administration has inevitably made an opponent out of those political
forces firmly opposed to Ukraine’s return to Russia’s sphere of influence. They
are three of parliament’s five parliamentary factions: the European Solidarity
party led by Poroshenko, the Fatherland party led by former PM Tymoshenko and
the Voice party led by Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. Moreover, several hundred
nationalists and paramilitaries protested at the President’s Office the night
of Zelensky’s announcement on the Steinmeier formula. This conflict will
inevitably swell, possibly reaching violent levels.

 

To win his domestic conflict and pursue his agenda
both on Donbas and economic revival overall, Zelensky has to demonstrate to
both the Ukrainian public and the global community that the majority of Ukrainians
support his position advocating a quick end to warfare. This could be
effectively accomplished with a referendum on legislation creating the
self-governance conditions in Donetsk and Luhansk, which may also end up as a
constitutional amendment, regardless of the current assurance by the Zelensky
team that that won’t be allowed.