Ukraine budget revenue rises 10% in 9M19, below plan

Ukraine’s 9M19 state budget revenue rose 9.6% yoy to
UAH 739 bln, which is 4.8% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on Oct. 1. Net tax revenue rose 15.8% yoy to UAH 331 bln (0.3% above
plan). Customs revenue declined 3.1% yoy to UAH 233 bln (11.5% below plan).

Local budgets fiscal revenue improved 17.6% yoy to UAH
205 bln in 9M19, which is 1.4% above plan. Social payments (pension and other
social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 21.3% yoy to UAH 199 bln.

In September alone, Ukraine’s state budget revenue
increased 1.1% yoy to UAH 68 bln, which is 7.3% yoy below plan. Net tax
receipts advanced 12.7% yoy to UAH 28 bln, which is 6.5% below plan. In
particular, general tax revenue rose 7.1% yoy to UAH 40 bln, while VAT
reimbursement dropped 4.1% yoy to UAH 12 bln. Customs revenue declined 12.6%
yoy to UAH 27 bln, which is 15.5% below plan.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
September budget collections hardly demonstrated any improvement from the previous month. Even with
lower VAT reimbursement, net tax collections couldn’t reach plan.

We don’t expect the situation with tax collections to
improve noticeably though the year end. The new government can’t increase
pressure on taxpayers as this would hurt its pro-business image. As for
customs, it should take some more time before the positive results of reforms
are to be seen.