Ukraine’s president retains commanding lead before parliamentary elections

Almost half of Ukrainians who already know which party
they are voting for in the July 21 parliamentary elections will support
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s The People’s Servant party. The survey, released
on July 10 by the respected Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
showed that 48.5% of respondents were prepared to vote for Zelensky’s
legislators.

Other parties expected to cross the 5% threshold
include the pro-Russian Opposition Platform – For Life at 14.1% of already
decided voters. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party comes
in at 9.2% and former PM Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Fatherland at 6.2%. UkrInform
notes that rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voice (Holos) party and the
Strength and Honor party still have a chance of gaining entry to the Verkhovna
Rada, and they poll at 4.4% and 4.1% respectively.

The survey was conducted June 25 to July 7. KIIS
claims that the margin of error ranges from no more than 3.3% for parties near
50% to less than 1.4% for parties close to 5%.

James Hydzik: There are no surprises here, and barring an unusual event, this should
roughly mirror the parties’ representation in the legislature. Undecided voters
usually split along these same lines, so there are no wells of under-reported
(legitimate) support being ignored.