Kolomoisky repeats Russian narrative on Donbas war

Ihor Kolomoisky, among the biggest oligarchs in the
Ukrainian economy, has made comments that largely echo the Russian narrative on
the war in Donbas and rejected the Ukrainian government’s position. The ongoing
war in Donbas is an “internal civil conflict” in which Russian soldiers are
fulfilling an “international obligation,” he said in an interview published on
the nv.ua news site on July 4. The war was “not in any way inspired by any
Russia,” he said in comments that deny the wide evidence of Russians planning
and engaging in military operations in Ukraine in spring 2014.

At the same time, Kolomoisky acknowledged that Russian
soldiers arrived in Donbas after the conflict’s outbreak, serving as military
officers there while being documented as being on assignment or on vacation.
They are in Donbas “to fulfill an international obligation,” he said, adding,
“And don’t make a catastrophe out of that. That’s a normal event.” He equated them
with the presence of Western soldiers in Ukraine fulfilling their obligations.
Kolomoisky also acknowledged that Russian military hardware is currently
positioned in Donbas, but added that U.S. has placed its military hardware in
Ukraine as well, which he said was done because the U.S. government is
interested in extending the conflict.

Zenon Zawada: Kolomoisky’s
claims denying Russian involvement in creating the war in Donbas don’t reflect
the abundance of evidence to the contrary. We don’t believe that Kolomoisky
truly believes this version of events since he was at the very center, having
himself provided support for Ukrainian paramilitaries in the early stages of
the fighting in 2014, when the Ukrainian army was not yet organized. Therefore,
we can only interpret these comments as Kolomoisky’s attempt to renew his
personal relations with the Putin administration, possibly to give him more
leverage should U.S. FBI investigations and Western sanctions intensify.

Having also been Zelensky’s main campaign sponsor, his
comments raise the question of how this will affect Zelensky’s peace efforts
with Russia. His administration has already named several red lines it will not
cross, including recognizing the illegal annexation of Crimea and granting full
autonomy for Donbas. Yet other red lines that we view as dangerous are
Presidential Office Head Andriy Bohdan’s recent proposal for cultural autonomy
(largely because that would set off similar demands in other cities like
Odesa), agreeing to further relax or remove Western sanctions, recognizing
Russia’s rights on its territory occupied in Ukraine, as well as direct talks
with the Russian-backed fighters, as Russian President Putin again demanded
this week.

On the whole, Ukraine’s top oligarchs have
indicated they are interested in ending this warfare as soon as possible and
conceding to Russian demands, if not capitulating altogether. The biggest
oligarch, Rinat Akhmetov, is sponsoring the Opposition Bloc in the elections,
which is calling for direct talks with the Russian-backed fighters. Another
industrial giant, Victor Pinchuk, has already ignited controversy for proposing
that Ukraine abandon hopes to join the EU and consider accepting Privileged
Partnership status instead. And now Kolomoisky has made a series of comments in
recent months that are clearly intended to improve his standing with the Putin
administration. Ending the war is positive for the investment community, but
only if Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic prospects are preserved.