Ukraine goods trade deficit reaches USD 0.6 bln in April

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached a USD 609 mln
deficit in April, decreasing from USD 645 mln in March, the State Statistics Service
said in its preliminary report on June 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade
deficit amounted to USD 924 mln (staying close to a USD 916 mln deficit in
March) amid 0.6% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 0.6% m/m increase in
adjusted imports.

In 4M19, the trade deficit reached USD 2.1 bln,
swelling 45.2% yoy. In 4M19, goods exports advanced 6.0% yoy to USD 16.4 bln.
Meanwhile, goods imports rose 9.3% yoy to USD 18.5 bln. The agricultural sector
remained the major contributor to export growth. In particular, grain exports
surged 46.4% yoy and finished food product exports picked up 13.0% yoy. In
addition, exports of mineral products increased 12.8% yoy. At the same time,
exports of ferrous metals and machinery declined 8.8% yoy and 5.6% yoy, respectively.

Road vehicle and aircraft imports surged 39.9% yoy,
remaining a major contributor to rising imports overall. In addition, machinery
imports improved 6.0% yoy, while imports of mineral fertilizers gained 38.6%
yoy.

Exports to the EU grew 4.8% yoy in 4M19, while EU
imports jumped 11.8% yoy. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports
amounted to 42.4% and 41.9%, respectively.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The goods
trade deficit in April coincided with our estimate.
The trade deficit continues to enlarge, with goods export growth slowing from
the effect of last year’s record-high grain crop wearing off. Meanwhile, two
other important exports sectors – ferrous metals and machinery – continue to
decline.

The provisional customs statistics released this month
promise that May’s goods trade deficit will decline to USD 0.4 bln amid
accelerated growth of goods export.

We expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according
to UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 11.5 bln (from USD 9.8 bln in 2018),
with import growth outpacing export gains.