Ukraine navy won’t attempt to cross Kerch Strait in same way, commander says

The Armed Forces of Ukraine won’t make another attempt
to cross the Kerch Strait in the way it was attempted in November, Commander
Ruslan Khomchak said in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
published on June 16. Ukrainian and other ships cross the Kerch Strait daily,
he said. At the same time, “we don’t intend to repeat military attempts in the
same way as they were,” he said. “We will think about how to do this so that we
don’t have such consequences.”

Recall, in November 2018, Russian border agents fired
on two Ukrainian military boats before detaining them, alleging they refused to
listen to orders. The 24 crew members remain under arrest in Russia. The
Ukrainian military leadership said they were acting lawfully. In the RFE/RL
interview, Khomchak upheld the military’s position that the Russians provoked
the situation in what he said was “an open military aggression” in violation of
the norms of maritime law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the
relatives of the arrested sailors they would be released soon during a June 14
meeting. “We are sure that those steps we are taking now will give us the
possibility to return the sailors in the nearest future,” he said, as reported
by the Presidential Administration website. Zelensky said he is keeping the
situation under control, the website said.

Zenon Zawada: Khomchak’s
announcement reflects a more cautious approach to Russia by the new leadership
than what was declared by the former secretary of the National Security and
Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov, who defiantly vowed numerous times that
Ukrainian navy ships would repeat attempts to cross the Kerch Strait. Of
course, the European Solidarity party (led by former President Poroshenko) will
accuse President Zelensky of beginning to capitulate against Russia with this
new position, which resembles a reversal (though not fully).

We see this position as a positive development towards
peace between Russia and Ukraine, which is needed to renew investment activity.
As for the arrested sailors, we don’t see them being released without
concessions from the Zelensky administration. Avoiding the Kerch Strait alone
won’t be enough.