Ukraine avoids taking sides in Moldova conflict after June 13 meetings

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry recognizes two prime
ministers in Moldova’s current political crisis, according to comments made on
June 13 by Viktor Kryzhanivskiy, a Ukrainian special envoy who traveled to
Chisinau that day and met with both politicians claiming to be the prime
minister. As reported by the eurointegration.com.ua news site, Kryzhanivskiy
identified Pavel Filip as prime minister in his comments after the meetings,
and also identified Maia Sandu as prime minister, who was selected to head the
government by the new governing coalition (which the ruling government refuses
to recognize). Kryzhanivskiy declined to name the prime minister of the current
government, only calling upon the sides “to resolve their dispute by means of
political dialogue in order to avoid a violent conflict, and as a result find a
measured solution that stabilizes the situation and supports the state’ further
democratic development.”

Zenon Zawada: The
Moldovan conflict is a kettle that continues to boil, with the potential to
erupt into violence in the coming days or weeks. In this very complicated situation,
Moldova’s new coalition government, formed on June 8, consists of pro-Russian
and pro-EU forces uniting against the ruling party, which is widely criticized
for its corruption. The leading EU nations – Germany, France and Great Britain
– have joined Russia in recognizing the new government. Yet the old government,
led by PM Filip, refuses to cede power, arguing the coalition was formed
illegally, as back by court rulings.

The danger for Ukraine is that a violent scenario
could give the Russians (who recognize Sandu as prime minister, though she is a
pro-EU politician) the pretext to intervene in some way, perhaps even
militarily in the extreme case, again using the argument that it has to protect
the Russian-speaking minority.

We expect Ukraine to maintain a neutral position
throughout the duration of this conflict. Though Western nations are not
directly militarily threatened by Russia and can afford to unite with Russia on
certain geopolitical matters, Ukrainian politicians can’t afford this luxury,
regardless of the facts on the ground in Chisnau. That’s especially the case
with Zelensky administration, which is eager to avoid being accused of allying
with the Russians, especially during the current election campaigning.