Armed fighting intensifies in Donbas as Zelensky reanimates peace talks

Armed fighting intensified in the Donbas region in
recent days, just as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reanimated the
Minsk peace talks on June 5. Between June 4 and June 6, at least six Ukrainian
soldiers were killed and 12 injured, according to the press center of Operation
Joint Forces. Among the Russian-backed fighters, at least three were killed and
5 injured, the press center said. Numerous violations of the artillery allowed by
the Minsk Accords were reported.

 

Zelensky said he believes the Kremlin has lost partial
control of the Donbas fighters as his reaction to the use of artillery by the
Russian-backed fighters in the Donetsk region the night of June 6-7. “The
alarming violation of the Minsk Accords – the use of artillery – indicates, at
minimum, the partial loss of administration and control over the mercenaries.
We hope the Russian side renews control over these subunits,” Zelensky said in
a Facebook post on the Presidential Administration page. He added, “The
shooting of Ukrainian soldiers is an obvious attempt to undermine the ceasefire
negotiating process yet again. Regardless of who gave the order, Ukraine’s
Armed Forces will reply fiercely and in accordance to the situation.”

 

As his response to the three Ukrainian casualties and
three injuries reported on June 4, Zelensky posted on Facebook the next morning
that he would discuss the latest aggression during his first foreign trip to
Brussels. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian delegation attending the Trilateral Contact
Group talks in Minsk that day would address “the unacceptability of attempts at
dialogue with us from a position of strength,” Zelensky wrote. “Escalating the
conflict is not the best background to renew the Minsk talks. We don’t need to
be reminded of the possibility of your aggression being escalated yet again,”
he wrote.

 

The single proposal that Ukraine lift its trade
blockade on Donbas was truly made by representatives of the occupied Donetsk
and Luhansk regions, and backed by Russian diplomats, at the Trilateral Contact
Group talks in Minsk on June 5, OSCE Special Representative Martin Sajdik told
reporters the next day, Interfax-Ukraine said. When he told reporters that it
was Ukraine’s lead negotiator, Leonid Kuchma, who made the proposal, he said he
meant that Kuchma was referring to “the entire complex of mutual steps” related
to the blockade. “He especially stressed that this work should be mutual and
he, in particular, spoke about canceling the so-called foreign administration
of enterprises, as well as a series of other measures,” Sajdik said of Kuchma.

 

Zenon Zawada: Zelensky’s
reaction today to the fighting in Donbas reveals a new rhetoric on the war, as
compared to his predecessor. Rather than addressing the actions of the fighters
in isolation, Zelensky addresses their actions in the context of the Kremlin.
Zelensky also shifts the narrative towards stating as fact that the Kremlin has
been using the fighters, rather than continuing to make accusations when the
overwhelming evidence has long proven this. In making this statement of fact,
he also shifts the narrative towards requiring the Kremlin to retake control of
its fighters, making another case for its irresponsible conduct in the war and
offering a bit of humiliation.

 

Yet at the end of this statement, Zelensky nonetheless
identifies the attacks as part of a consistent pattern to influence the peace
talks, regardless of the source, and vows a harsh response. It’s this new
approach to the war that all of Zelensky’s voters were hoping, regardless of
what particularly approach they favor (diplomatic, military or
capitulation).  

 

Indeed, we have long shared Zelensky’s position that
there has been a pattern of the Russian military leadership intensifying
attacks in Donbas to influence peace talks and events, having tracked the
intensity of fighting throughout the five-year war in Donetsk and Luhansk
(collectively known as “Donbas”). Intensifying the fighting creates tension in
the negotiating room, as well as narratives in the day’s mass media news cycle,
which is intended to place added pressure on Ukrainian diplomats.  It’s
worth considering that such intensity was last reported in early April, ahead
of the second-round runoff of the presidential elections.

 

We reiterate our view in response to yesterday’s original report
that any attempt by Zelensky to remove the trade blockade will be met with protest,
even if the Russian-backed government in Donbas agrees to measures in return,
such as returning major industrial enterprises to Ukrainian control. We believe
in a stronger likelihood that such a breakthrough can be reached now that
Russia has granted citizenship to the residents of occupied Donbas.

 

We observed soon after the Minsk Accords were drafted
that fulfilling them works to Russia’s geopolitical advantage, and this is all
the more true now that millions of Russian citizens live in Donbas. We believed
that development would force Zelensky and his Western partners to have to
abandon the Minsk Accords altogether and start from scratch. If Zelensky makes
progress in fulfilling the Minsk Accords now (an effort that is still being
backed by the West), he will be giving Ukrainians what they want, which is
peace. But he will also be giving the Russians what they want, which is
preventing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. It’s our conviction that
Ukraine can’t have both peace and Euro-Atlantic integration.