Zelenskiy declares parliament dismissed, early elections still unclear

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared
parliament dismissed during his May 20 inauguration speech, not having signed
the corresponding decree as of this morning. If parliament is officially
dismissed, and the decree withstands any challenges, Zelenskiy can call early
parliamentary elections in two months (ahead of the scheduled date of Oct. 27).
As their reaction, coalition MPs of the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front told
journalists that they are ready for early parliamentary elections in two months.
Iryna Lutsenko, the former president’s representative to parliament, told
journalists on May 17 that Zelenskiy has the legal right to dismiss parliament
and call early elections.

Zenon Zawada: Having made
the declaration, Zelenskiy is likely to sign the presidential decree today
dismissing the Verkhovna Rada. What remains unclear is (1) whether he has the
legal ability to do so, (2) whether he will face an appeal from opposing
politicians, and (3) whether a political consensus will emerge to hold early
elections, regardless of the legal prospects. It was our understanding that not
only can he not dismiss parliament for the next 30 days (when the new coalition
must be formed after it was dissolved on May 17), but he could not dismiss
parliament within six months of the MPs of the newly elected parliament taking
their oaths, which would be in December under the current schedule. 

Although Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front MPs (and
officials like Lutsenko) have made statements that they are ready for an early
vote, they could be bluffing considering that we are confident they would much
prefer for the vote to occur on schedule, on Oct. 27. We believe it’s entirely
possible that Zelenskiy’s dismissal declaration is merely the start of a legal
battle. On the other hand, considering there’s no parliamentary coalition, a
consensus could possibly be reached with single-mandate MPs, as well as the
Opposition Bloc, Radical Party and Fatherland factions.