Ukraine budget revenue rises 18% yoy in 4M19, below plan

Ukraine’s 4M19 state budget revenue rose 18.2% yoy to
UAH 322.6 bln, which is 4.8% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on May 2. Net tax revenue increased 3.0% yoy to UAH 125.1 bln (7.2% below
plan). Customs revenue increased 1.9% yoy to UAH 101.0 bln (9.9% below plan).
Meanwhile, special fund revenue jumped 68.0% yoy to UAH 40.3 bln.

In April alone, Ukraine’s state budget revenue rose
41.2% yoy to UAH 111.9 bln, which is 4.1% yoy below plan. The growth was mostly
due to a 252% yoy surge under the line item of “other ministries and government
agencies” to UAH 49.6 bln. In addition, special fund revenue jumped 33.2% yoy
to UAH 7.8 bln. Net tax revenue in April declined 1.5% yoy to UAH 28.6 bln
(5.4% below plan).

In particular, general tax receipts increased 3.7% in
April, while VAT reimbursement surged 18.9% yoy. Customs revenue gained 4.7%
yoy to UAH 25.3 mln, which is 11.9% below plan.

Local budgets fiscal revenue improved 19.1% yoy to UAH
86.4 bln in 4M19, almost hitting the plan. Social payments (pension and other
social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 24.0% yoy to UAH 84.8
bln.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Regular
budget collections in April were weak. Net tax revenue declined amid high VAT
reimbursement to exporters. As in the three previous months, custom revenue has
remained below plan. So far, there are no signs of improving budget collections
since the beginning of the year. The traditional response of tax collection agencies
in such situations would be intensified pressure on taxpayers in order to catch
up on lagging budget collections. This year, however, the authorities might
abstain from such actions as the new leadership will try to avoid steps that
would be unpopular among businessmen, whom they are trying to appeal to. In
which case, the government is likely to tap planned budget expenditures.