Russia simplifies citizenship for wider categories of Ukrainians

Russian President Putin signed a decree on May 1
simplifying the procedure for gaining Russian citizenship to wider categories
of Ukrainian citizens, as well as those without citizenship, affected by the
Russian occupation of Donbas and Crimea. These categories include Ukrainian
refugees with residency in Russia, those who left Donbas before the conflict
erupted in March 2014, and those determined to have been illegally deported
from Crimea, among other categories. The timeframe for applying for citizenship
is three months, as established by the decree.

Those Ukrainians who have resided in the occupied
territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as Donbas), and take
Russian citizenship under the simplified procedures, will have to surrender
their Ukrainian citizenship, Yuriy Hrymchak, the deputy minister for the
temporarily occupied territories, told the 5 Kanal television network on Apr.
30. He stressed that Ukrainian law only allows for single citizenship, and
Russia’s offer of citizenship intends to further destabilize Ukraine by
interfering in its domestic affairs, and to extend legal protection to the
Russian-backed fighters and government workers in Donbas, among other
geopolitical aims.

In recent comments, Putin continued to indicate his
intention of bringing about Ukraine’s capitulation in order to bring the
nation-state back into Russia’s sphere of influence. During an Apr. 27 press
conference, Putin said Ukrainians are paying twice as much for natural gas than
they need to, and Russia is ready to cut prices by at least 25% under a new
agreement, as reported by the Interfax news agency. In response to comments
made on Facebook on Apr. 27 by President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who
suggested granting Ukrainian citizenship to Russians and all peoples “who
suffer from authoritarian and corrupt regimes,” Putin said on Apr. 29 that he
welcomes the proposal considering that Russians and Ukrainians are a single
people with much in common, despite differences in language and culture. “This
speaks to the fact that we’ll probably reach an agreement,” Putin said of
Zelenskiy when learning of the comments. “If they will grant citizenship to
Russians in Ukraine, and we (grant it) to Ukrainians in Russia, we will get to
a common denominator and a desired result quite quickly. We’ll have a common
citizenship.”

Zenon Zawada: We can
expect Putin to continue to impose gradually new measures every week that
indirectly, but ultimately undermine the value of Ukrainian statehood and
citizenship. We can also expect Putin to impose gradually new measures every
week that pressure President-elect Zelenskiy to capitulate to Russian demands
in Ukraine, in exchange for Zelenskiy being able to give the Ukrainian public
their most popular demands from him, especially ending the armed fighting in
Donbas and cutting household natural gas prices.

In dealing with Putin, Zelenskiy essentially has two options.
The first is capitulating and gaining these Russian concessions that will
solidify his wide popularity, particularly among his electoral base in the
Russophile southeasten regions. In our view, this makes the most sense
politically for Zelenskiy, which is why we believe there are even odds (at
least 50/50 likelihood) that he will choose this path.

The second option is to follow President Poroshenko’s
foreign policy path of relying on Western sanctions to bring about Russia’s
capitulation eventually, while continuing to wage war in Donbas. If Zelenskiy
chooses this path, he risks quickly losing the support of his electorate, not
in the southeast but throughout Ukraine. Moreover, he can’t win over the
electorate of western Ukrainians, who don’t trust Zelenskiy enough to lend him
support for the October parliamentary elections.

In order to succeed on this path, Zelenskiy will
need to select a key issue that unites Ukrainians, like fighting corruption or
judicial reform, and be successful enough that they’re willing to overlook
their concerns among high gas prices and ongoing warfare. It’s possible he will
have success. It’s also possible he will attempt this and eventual capitulate
to Putin if this path becomes too difficult to accomplish results.