Ukraine elections prove Poroshenko policies failed, Putin says

The Ukrainian presidential election results
demonstrate “a complete failure of the politics of Poroshenko,” Russian
President Putin told an Apr. 25 press conference. “I am confident that the
government can’t not understand that,” he said, referring to President-elect
Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “We will at least look at the first steps. Understanding
is one thing. It’s another to build realistic policies that reflect the
interests of your own people.”

Zenon Zawada: Russia
invaded Ukraine in 2014 knowing that the country would be very limited in
defending itself, not only militarily, but especially economically. Ukraine was
dependent on Russia for its critical natural gas supplies, as well as coal, oil
and gasoline. And Ukraine remains so. Russia was also a key consumer of
Ukraine’s industrial products, ranging from Motor Sich helicopter engines to
Interpipe pipes. Overcoming these dependencies in such a short period of time –
and making Ukraine more self-reliant – would have required colossal efforts by
a Ukrainian president, who was limited by a political checks and balances,
private property rights and economic restraints.

The Kremlin was also aware that any Ukrainian
president to emerge in 2014 would have had economic interests in Russia, as was
the case with Petro Poroshenko (among his largest confectionary factories
remains in Russia). And Russia knew in advance that not only the president, but
the entire Ukrainian oligarchy would be very prudent in responding to Russian
aggression out of concern for their assets and economic ties.

In all these ways, Poroshenko’s hands were tied from
the very start. What the Kremlin didn’t expect was such a long military
resistance from Ukraine, and Ukraine’s ability to muster firm and consistent Western
support in the form of consistent sanctions. Both of these achievements can be
attributed to Poroshenko’s leadership. Yet it was not enough for the Ukrainian
public amid declining living standards, denoted by a currency collapse,
inflation, surging utility costs, low wages and decaying infrastructure.

In essence, the Kremlin’s plan to exhaust Ukraine
through a campaign of warfare and aggression has succeeded to a large extent,
and Poroshenko was limited in his ability to combat that. In order for
Zelenskiy to be successful, he must have the will to execute a program of
pragmatic reforms in the essential spheres of public life, whether the
judiciary or even road infrastructure (regardless if that falls under his
competency). And he needs a powerful parliamentary faction to support his plans
for pragmatic reforms to improve business conditions and living standards. He
needs to dismiss parliament and call early elections to gain a strong presence
in parliament, without which he could become a lame duck president by the year
end, unable to achieve anything significant. And in that case, we can expect an
attempt in parliament to seize the president’s remaining authority.