Russia extends citizenship to occupied Donetsk, Luhansk residents

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on Apr. 24 a decree
simplifying the procedure for the permanent residents of the occupied
territories of Donetsk and Luhansk to gain Russian citizenship. Applications
will be reviewed during a term that doesn’t exceed three months from the day of
their submission. The text of the decree stated its goal as “the defense of the
human and citizen rights and freedoms” on the basis of “universally recognized
principles of the norms of international law.”  The same day, presidential
adviser Vladislav Surkov, who is widely recognized as Putin’s point man on the
Donbas conflict, said the decree is the Russian government’s obligation to
those who “speak and think in the Russian language, who have found themselves
in a very difficult situation owing to the repressive actions of the Kyiv
regime.” The government is “refusing to recognize them as its citizens,
imposing an economic blockade, not allowing them to vote and applying military
force against them,” Surkov said.

By the end of the day, the Russian Foreign Ministry
clarified that Donbas residents gaining Russian citizenship will be allowed to
retain their Ukrainian citizenship. They can submit applications at state
offices in Russia’s Rostov region. However, Ukrainian law forbids dual
citizenship. The Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk –
collectively known as Donbas – had about 3.8 million permanent residents as of
end-2016, according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. That figure has
likely since declined.

The decision to grant Russian citizenship to Donbas
residents violates both international and Ukrainian law, Ukraine’s Foreign
Ministry said in an Apr. 24 statement protesting the decision, which it said
ruins the Minsk Accords. The decision is a gross interference in Ukraine’s
internal affairs and a continuation of Russia’s attempt to gradually annex the
Donbas region, the statement said. These attempts “have as their goal the
destabilization of the domestic political situation in Ukraine in the
post-election period, demonstrate Russia’s attempt to continue its aggression,
and confirm the absence of their interest in any de-escalation,” the statement
said.

In response to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s
protest, the UN Security Council will meet this afternoon to discuss the
Russian government’s decision. The day of the decree, the U.S. State Department
issued a statement condemning Putin’s decision. “Russia, through this highly
provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and
territorial integrity,” the statement said. “President Putin’s decision creates
a serious obstacle to the implementation of the Minsk agreements and the
reintegration of the Donbas region.” In his turn, U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine
Kurt Volker tweeted that Putin’s decree is straight from Russia’s “occupation
playbook” and “undermines efforts to implement Minsk and restore Donbas to
Ukrainian control.”

Ukraine’s parliament this morning approved legislation
that will expand requirements on the use of the Ukrainian language,
particularly in the commercial sphere. Among its key provisions, Internet
publications must set their websites to load automatically in the Ukrainian
language. The law also requires publishers to print an equal volume of
Ukrainian-language versions of a particular publication published in a foreign
language, usually Russian. Publishers have argued this requirement will cause
them losses and force them to close many publications. Universities must
arrange the majority of their course instruction in the Ukrainian language,
which they said will cost them foreign enrollment.

Zenon Zawada: The decree
granting Russian citizenship to millions of Donbas residents puts an end to the
Minsk Accords peace process and marks the acceleration of Russian aggression
against the Ukrainian state in order to gain full capitulation from the
president-elect. It was planned long ago but the Russian leadership used the
language law as a convenient pretext. In this egregious violation of the Minsk
Accords, which are supposed to be a roadmap to resolve the conflict in Donbas,
the Kremlin has confirmed the widely held view – and the repeated claims of the
Poroshenko administration – that it has no intention to fulfill the peace plan.
And rather than returning the occupied territories to Ukrainian control, the
Kremlin is revealing that its main goal in Ukraine is to disrupt the
nation-building and Euro-Atlantic integration processes – achieved under the
Poroshenko administration – and bring the territory back under the Russian
sphere of influence.

With this decree, Putin is confirming that he views
Ukraine as the target of a zero-sum game with the West that he intends to win.
In order to rally more Ukrainians to its side, the Kremlin has begun pressuring
Ukraine on many fronts in the last week. The Kremlin understands that the
residents of the southeastern regions resent Ukrainian language requirements.
It also understands that the biggest concern among Ukrainians
is reducing the high prices for natural gas that were required by the IMF as
part of market reforms. These prices would certainly decline under renewed
relations with Russia. Last week, the Russian government adopted restrictions
on petrol-based exports in order for Ukrainians to feel the pinch of higher
retail gasoline prices. All these measures are intended to rally a significant
part of the electorate (primarily in the southeast) towards reintegration with
Russia.

In essence, the Kremlin is laying the groundwork
for President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy to capitulate and deliver to his core
electorate in the southeast regions all that they desire – lower natural gas
and gasoline prices, renewed trade with Russia, Russian language rights and
ultimately, an end to warfare. We expect Zelenskiy to be tempted to take this
bait and we think there’s a solid chance he will. In doing so, he risks a
hostile, if not violent reaction by the Western-oriented part of the country.
On the other hand, if Zelenskiy resists the Kremlin’s pressure, he risks
quickly losing the support of his electoral base in the southeast in the
absence of anything tangible to deliver to them in the first months of his
presidency. Zelenskiy also risks gaining a weak faction in parliament in the
October elections and becoming a lame duck president by the year end.