Medvedchuk sees difficulty in reaching Donbas peace under Zelenskiy

Viktor Medvedchuk, Putin’s confidante in Ukraine, said
on Apr. 22 that achieving peace in the ongoing Donbas warfare will be difficult
considering that President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that he opposes
amnesty for the Russian-backed fighters and granting special status for the
region, both requirements of the Minsk Accords. “It’s very difficult so far to
say that he will do something for peace,” said Medvedchuk, the political
council head of the Opposition Platform For Life, which is Ukraine’s leading
Russian-oriented party. Appearing on a Russian political talk show, Medvedchuk
said he will offer Zelenskiy support once he “realistically wants peace in
Donbas and we see that he is realistically doing something.”

Russian President Putin is ready to reach a peace deal
on the armed conflict in Donbas, Medvedchuk said in an interview with the
Reuters news agency published on Apr. 18. His main goal is to return Donbas
under Ukrainian control, as called for by the Minsk Accords, but on Russia’s
conditions, Medvedchuk said. “Nobody is talking about the need to make
concessions or give something away,” he said. “We are talking about the need to
return people and territory.” Putin could be ready to free the 24 arrested
Ukrainians sailors as a good will gesture, he said, and the Russian president
is also interested in renewing economic relations. Ideally, he wants peace
talks to occur between the Russian and Ukrainian diplomats, as well as the
leaders of the self-declared republics.

Zenon Zawada: In applying
new trade restrictions on Ukraine last week,
the Russian leadership will be gradually applying pressure on Zelenskiy in the
first months of his presidency to reach a ceasefire agreement in Donbas, on
Russia’s terms, as Medvedchuk confirmed in these comments. If Zelenskiy resists
this pressure, then Ukraine’s Russian-oriented forces – led by Medvedchuk –
will accuse the president of betraying his key promise of reaching in ceasefire
in Donbas. This will give Medvedchuk a strong result in the October vote,
gaining the role of the parliamentary opposition, at minimum.

Zelenskiy can’t afford to lose his key electoral base,
which are the residents of the Russophile southeastern regions. In order to
gain their support in the October vote, he needs to demonstrate at least one
major accomplishment in his first months as president, which is unlikely to be
a Donbas ceasefire. Zelenskiy would be in a far better position if he dismissed
parliament immediately and called early elections, but his advisers said he
won’t be doing that. So he will have to cobble together support in the existing
parliament in order to pass some major initiatives and gain a strong result in
the October vote, giving him a centrist faction committed to pragmatic reforms.

Without the support of a strong, effective
parliamentary faction after October, Zelenskiy will gradually lose his voter
base in the southeast. He also stands to become a lame duck as the
Russian-oriented forces will accuse him of betraying his promises of peace with
Russia, while the pro-Western forces will accuse him of not doing enough for
Euro-Atlantic integration.