Zelenskiy political party would dominate parliamentary vote, poll says

If parliamentary elections were held today, the party
led by presidential front-runner Volodymyr Zelenskiy would gain a dominant
first-place victory. The People’s Servant would earn 25.9% of votes, followed
by 15.7% for the Opposition Platform For Life party led by Russian-oriented
Yuriy Boyko, 13.9% for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, 12.1% for the Fatherland
party led by anti-IMF Yulia Tymoshenko, 5.1% for the Civic Position party led
by pro-NATO Anatoliy Grytsenko and 5.0% for the Strength and Honor party led by
pro-NATO Ihor Smeshko. The poll was conducted between Apr. 9 and 14 involving
2,004 respondents by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Zenon Zawada: These poll
numbers mean little in the context of the parliamentary elections scheduled for
October since we expect the political landscape will change dramatically by
then. The most important conclusion to be drawn from these numbers is that the
support for Zelenskiy’s party is currently at its highest that it will likely
ever be, given that it will be impossible for him to fulfill the expectations
that the public has for him as president. And without a centrist force to
support his proposed pragmatic reforms, he will have to tilt towards either the
pro-NATO or pro-Russian forces sooner or later.

Of the six parliamentary factions, two of their heads
(Yulia Tymoshenko of Fatherland and Oleh Liashko) have already made statements
of a critical nature against Zelenskiy. They are certain to oppose him because
they both fiercely oppose the farmland market and IMF-required gas price hikes.
Three more factions (pro-NATO Poroshenko Bloc, pro-NATO Self-Reliance,
pro-Russian Opposition Bloc) are certain to go against Zelenskiy, sooner rather
than later, in order to secure their electorate for the October vote.

In order to secure a powerful and pragmatic
centrist faction (to counteract the pro-NATO and pro-Russian forces), Zelenskiy
needs to dismiss parliament and call early elections immediately after taking
office, which he is able to do. Otherwise, he stands to not only become a lame
duck within months of taking office, but also lose most of his authority as
Tymoshenko has been campaigning for amending the Constitution to shift all the
president’s remaining authority (mostly in foreign policy and defense) to the
prime minister. We believe in a solid likelihood that Zelenskiy will seek early
elections.