Poroshenko campaign intensifies attacks against Zelenskiy

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called an Apr. 8
meeting of the members of his parliamentary faction to urge them to intensify
the attacks on his election campaign rival, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In fighting
against Yulia Tymoshenko in the first round, the campaign staff overlooked
Zelenskiy, the president said, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site,
citing its anonymous sources at the meeting. “The campaign against Zelenskiy
has to become harsh now,” the president reportedly said, according to a faction
MP. Another MP said, “The president said that we are supposed to win with a
knockout.”

Indeed the Poroshenko campaign has intensified its
attacks this week, most notably posting billboards across the country depicting
Poroshenko facing off against Russian president Putin, implying that those who
vote for Zelenskiy are actually voting for Ukraine’s capitulation to Russia.
They billboards say, “Apr. 21. The critical choice!” Poroshenko campaign
newspapers bear a similar image of Poroshenko and Putin, under the headline,
“Apr. 21. Choose!” The depictions drew criticism from the pro-NATO candidate
Anatoliy Grytsenko, who finished in fifth place in the first-round vote. “They
are a direct and baseless insult and disrespect for 85% of the public that
voted for other candidates in the first round,” Grytsenko wrote on his Facebook
page.

Competing demonstrations involving a few hundred
people have emerged in front of Zelenskiy’s campaign headquarters since Apr. 9.
At least one crowd is likely to have been organized by the Poroshenko campaign,
as it included an identified party member and consisted mostly of pensioners
and students (as reported by pravda.com.ua), who most commonly work as paid
protesters. Police made two arrests on Apr. 9 for attempting to tear a placard
and provoke a fight, without identifying which crowd the assailants belonged
to. On Apr. 10, a motorcade drove up to the headquarters with its participants
demanding that Zelenskiy submit more samples for drug tests. The vehicles bore
flags and signs alleging to be the participants of the legendary AutoMaidan
protests of 2014, a claim that was rejected on the Internet by those alleging
to be the true AutoMaidan protesters.

Oleh Barna, an MP with the Poroshenko Bloc, assaulted
a Zelenskiy campaign spokesman in a television studio after his appearance on
Apr. 8 on a political talk show. Sviatoslav Yurash, who had launched the
EuroMaidan international press center, accused Poroshenko of preferring to host
a parade in Kyiv instead of backing Ukrainian soldiers at the battle of
Ilovaysk in August 2014, leading to their defeat and hundreds of deaths. These
remarks prompted Barna to approach Yurash after the show and criticize him, all
the while shaking him by his collar and tearing his shirt, as video from the
incident revealed. A police officer separated them.

Zenon Zawada: If they had
played their cards right, we are confident the Poroshenko campaign staffers
could have pulled off a close finish in the runoff vote, if not a victory. But
instead, the Poroshenko campaign is overplaying its hand and shooting itself in
the foot with its aggressive tactics. The campaign is correct to argue that
Poroshenko is the better candidate to defend against Russian aggression. Rather
than drawing undecided voters to Poroshenko however, his campaign is repulsing
them by demonizing Zelenskiy and his supporters.

Part of Zelenskiy’s appeal is that the public,
particularly those 40 years old and younger, wants a new approach to politics
that is pragmatic and flexible. They reject the Soviet-style, black-and-white
worldview that has been adopted by Poroshenko in dealing with his rivals,
casting them as enemies to be defeated rather than competitors to be dealt
with. They also reject the rampant corruption, political manipulations and
public deceptions that have been indulged by the politicians of the post-Soviet
era, including Poroshenko.

We recommend our clients to assume a Zelenskiy victory
as the base-case scenario in the Apr. 21 runoff vote – which the bond market
has already done – barring any force majeure events, which are entirely
possible in the remaining ten days. The key risk is that a Zelenskiy victory will
destabilize Ukraine’s entire political and economic situation for the remainder
of the year.