27 March 2019
The latest round of elections-related scandals
surfaced this week, the most sensational being a March 24 television broadcast
accusing President Poroshenko of various crimes, including bribing MPs,
financial machinations, illicit trade with Russia and similar crimes committed
in Moldova in the 1990s and 2000s, including conspiring to murder his brother.
The investigative news program was broadcast on the 1+1 television network,
which is controlled by the Israeli-based oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who has an
intense rivalry with the president and is sponsoring two of the three leading
contenders in the elections, including the campaign of front-runner Volodymyr
Zelenskiy. In a statement afterwards, the 1+1 network insisted that all the
claims were backed by evidence.
In response to the scandalous claims, the president
said he is filing a defamation lawsuit against the 1+1 network. “I have never
filed lawsuits against journalists and don’t intend to do that now,” he said in
a March 26 tweet. “I filed a lawsuit against the television channel. This is an
element of the defense of our country against the encroachment of an
oligarch-fugitive who is sitting abroad and believes he can control puppets in
Ukraine.”
Zenon Zawada: The rivalry
between Poroshenko and Kolomoisky is fierce, as demonstrated by how vicious the
accusations have become. The very intensity of their conflict is why we believe
the president will be very reluctant to concede a second-round defeat to
Zelenskiy, who is likely to represent Kolomoisky’s interests as president and
has already threatened to prosecute Poroshenko for alleged crimes. Poroshenko
will only concede defeat if the Central Election Commission determines a large
margin in Zelenskiy’s favor (at least 5%) and the OSCE endorses such a result.
However, if the runoff will indeed feature
Zelenskiy and Poroshenko (which is what we expect), then the president will
have three weeks after this Sunday’s first-round vote to attack Zelenskiy’s
political positions, which won’t be very hard. Despite Zelenskiy’s wide lead in the polls, the race is still highly competitive.