Zelenskiy strengthens lead, calls for EU, NATO referenda

Comedian and actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy has
strengthened his lead in the presidential elections, nearly doubling the
ratings of his rivals, according to the latest polls released on March 25.
Among decided voters, 27.7% will vote for Zelenskiy, compared to 16.6% for
Yulia Tymoshenko and 16.4% for Petro Poroshenko, according to a poll conducted
by the Rating Sociological Group of 15,000 respondents between March 5 and 14.
In a second-round runoff, Zelenskiy would easily defeat Poroshenko (39% vs.
18%) and Tymoshenko (34% vs. 21%), according to the same poll.

Zelenskiy enjoys an even more commanding lead
according to the results of a second poll, which was conducted by the Kyiv
International institute of Sociology between March 14 and 22 among 2,004
respondents. The dark horse candidate has 32.1% support among decided voters,
compared to 17.1% for Poroshenko and 12.5% for Tymoshenko. In the runoff,
Zelenskiy would easily defeat Poroshenko (43.0% vs. 17.6%) and Tymoshenko
(39.1% vs. 20.0%).

As for his latest political positions, Zelenskiy
called for referenda to be held on EU and NATO membership in a video-recorded
interview with foreign journalists published on March 21. He said he personally
favors Ukraine’s entry to the EU and NATO but “Ukrainians should decide on what they’re
joining, this or another union.” He referred to parliament’s February vote
to amend the Ukrainian Constitution to require EU and NATO membership as a
“pre-elections political decision.” In a television interview the
next day, Zelenskiy called for boosting investment in Ukraine by “rebooting”
Ukraine’s judicial system.  

Zenon Zawada: Poroshenko
will have his work cut out for him in trying to win the second-round runoff
(assuming he qualifies, which we expect). However, Zelenskiy may have made this
task easier for his campaign staff by making such reckless statements as
planning to hold referenda on EU and NATO membership (as if Brexit isn’t enough
of a warning of the potential consequences). That’s not only because parliament
voted overwhelmingly to require this, but also because the EuroMaidan protests
of 2013-2014 confirmed the Euro-Atlantic course favored by the majority of
Ukrainians. Such positions confirm our view that Zelenskiy’s presidency would
destabilize Ukraine’s geopolitical situation, as much as Yulia Tymoshenko’s
presidency would.

To make such comments (and possibly pursue such
policies), Zelenskiy must be aware that they play into the Kremlin’s strategy
for Ukraine. To be not aware of this would imply Zelenskiy’s ignorance of even
the basics of Ukraine’s geopolitical situation. So at minimum, this position is
aimed at solidifying his results in Ukraine’s Russophile southeastern regions.
But it’s now worth considering that Zelenskiy is considering a foreign policy
of “neutrality,” which sounds very nice but plays directly into the hands of
the Kremlin.