Poroshenko, Hale discuss elections stability, detained Ukrainians

President Petro Poroshenko reached agreement on the
need to prevent foreign influence on Ukraine’s approaching presidential
elections and to preserve domestic stability in a March 6 meeting with U.S.
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale. They agreed to the
need to place further pressure on Russia, including sanctions, in response to
its aggression in Ukraine and its maritime zone, the president’s website said.
In response to the Nov. 25 attack and arrest of Ukrainian navy ships and crew
in the Black Sea, Hale called upon Russia to return the ships and crew, as well
as all Ukrainian political prisoners illegally detained, the U.S. Embassy said
in a tweet that day. Hale’s three-day working visit to Kyiv, which concludes
today, came on the heels of a visit by U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt
Volker to Ukraine on Feb. 26-27.

Zenon Zawada: With their
visits and remarks, U.S. diplomats are giving Ukraine special attention ahead
of the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, and rightfully so. They
have indicated that they are aware of the high potential for instability and
they will play an active role in preventing potential chaos from erupting.
That’s especially the case with the Russian-aligned forces already
revealing that they are preparing to take advantage of a
situation in which a consensus on the results can’t be reached and protests
erupt.

As also revealed by their remarks and actions,
particularly their meetings with presidential frontrunner Volodymyr Zelenskiy,
U.S. diplomats have indicated that they will recognize the election results – regardless
of who wins – if the vote process itself is determined to have met
international standards by leading elections observers, especially the OSCE.
The problem we see is that the Poroshenko administration is likely to resist
recognizing the potential victory of Zelenskiy, who has ties to oligarch Igor
Kolomoisky, a fierce rival to the president. Zelenskiy has already indicated he will imprison Poroshenko
for his alleged corruption, which doesn’t help the prospects of the president
leaving office without a struggle.

Indeed the presidential administration has many
instruments to discredit the vote and delay a transfer in power. U.S. diplomats
are aware of this possibility, as well as the prospect that Poroshenko’s
reluctance to cede power to rivals could lead to a chaotic situation that
Russia will be eager to exploit. So if the polls continue to show Zelenskiy’s dominating lead, and exit polls confirm this, then we expect U.S.
diplomats will be working actively behind the scenes to convince Poroshenko to
leave office without throwing the country into chaos. At the same time, the
Poroshenko campaign has enough time to discredit Zelenskiy and try to pull off
a legitimate victory.