Donbas warfare intensifies in last week

Armed fighting in Ukraine’s war-torn Donbas region
intensified in the last week with both sides suffering at least four
casualties, according to Concorde Capital’s analysis. The Ukrainian side
suffered at least 18 injuries during this time, while the Russian-backed forces
had at least four. Attacks from the Russian-backed fighters reached their
highest level this year in fighting on Feb. 19, including fire from mortars,
anti-aircraft and artillery systems, as reported by the Joint Forces Operation
press service. The ceasefire was violated 11 times that day, and one Ukrainian
soldier was injured.

The United Nations needs to consider restricting
Russia’s veto rights in the Security Council and organizing a peacekeeping
mission to Donbas to stop the warfare, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
told the General Assembly on Feb. 20 during his working visit to the U.S. More
than 2,000 Russian soldiers have been positioned in occupied Donbas to support
35,000 local fighters with access to 496 tanks, 128 anti-aircraft missile
systems and 776 artillery systems, he told the UN, according to his
administration’s website. Meanwhile, since its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014,
Russia has engaged in an “unprecedented militarization” of the peninsula that
is changing the strategic balance in the Black Sea region, he said.

Zenon Zawada: We have long expected that the Russian
leadership would be intensifying its military aggression in Donbas during the
election campaign. In its view, the heightened aggression will prompt more
Ukrainian voters – particularly in the southeastern regions – to cast their
ballots for presidential candidates calling for peace. But while the plan had
been for them to vote for the Kremlin-backed Yuriy Boyko, they have instead
opted to support Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who has made vague statements calling for
an end to fighting but has indicated that he would maintain a pro-Western
foreign policy.

We share the view Zelenskiy’s election would hurt
Ukraine’s efforts to maintain Western pressure on Russia. The Western public
won’t view the military aggression any more seriously than the Ukrainians
themselves. With many Westerners already disinterested and exhausted from the
conflict with Russia, the election of a comedian-actor will merely affirm – or
give new legitimacy to – much of the Kremlin propaganda about the war,
particularly the false claim that it’s truly a domestic conflict that
Ukrainians are ready to “compromise” on (though this really means
capitulating).

For the Kremlin, either Zelenskiy or Yulia
Tymoshenko are better options than Poroshenko, who will continue to engage in
tight cooperation with the leading Western structures, including the EU, NATO
and the IMF. While both Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy have indicated commitments to
maintain Ukraine’s Western cooperation, they present for the Kremlin at least
some chance to reach a “new arrangement” for Donbas.