Ukrainian fighter jets conducted a training exercise
in the Azov Sea maritime zone with support from ships with Ukraine’s navy
forces and the State Border Service, the Defense Minister reported on Jan. 28.
During the review of preparedness, the subunits practiced aiming at enemy navy
targets from ships, the report said. The exercise was conducted with success
and in a timely manner, the report said.
Zenon Zawada: It’s simple
training exercises like these that lead us to believe that another military
conflict with Russia in Ukraine’s maritime zone is inevitable, sooner or later.
This exercise could have prompted a Russian attack in a fashion similar to the
Nov. 25 incident, in which three navy ships and their crew were detained (two
dozen Ukrainian sailors remain in captivity). This means that martial law being
reimposed is also more likely than not.
The Russian news media, as well as their expert
talking heads, have characterized this incident as an aggressive provocation,
regardless of the Ukrainian military having the legal right to have access to
the Azov Sea. That the Russians restrained could indicate an inconsistency in
their aggressive acts towards the Ukrainian military in the Azov Sea zone. It
could also indicate a desire to reduce tensions, if even temporarily. But it
could also indicate strategic restraint ahead of a far greater military
offensive being planned.
What’s certain is that the pretext will be
available to the Russians to spin any future narratives justifying repeat
attacks on the Ukrainian military. With this exercise, Ukraine’s Armed Forces
are demonstrating they will continue to conduct active training and operations
in the Azov Sea zone, regardless of the recent Russian aggression on the military.